MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, September 2.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:40 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
It has been a rough stretch for Casey Mize since being traded to the San Diego Padres, posting a 6.26 ERA with 2.3 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings in his past five starts, but overall this season he has a solid 3.45 ERA with 0.9 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Brandon Williamson has a 6.11 ERA in his six starts this season with more walks than strikeouts, issuing 6.4 walks and getting 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The Reds rank 25th in the league in bullpen ERA at 4.71, while the Padres are fifth at 3.49.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -135
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -151
1:05 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has a 3.71 ERA this season but a much higher 4.75 fielding independent with 7.2 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings. Nationals starting pitcher Jackson Kent has had command issues in his four MLB starts, issuing 15 walks in 19 1/3 innings, and has the support of a lineup that is second in the league in scoring with 5.2 runs per game. However, the Nationals are also 28th in bullpen ERA at 4.94.
Pick: Braves vs. Nationals Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.7
4:10 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
In Bryce Miller’s last two starts, the Mariners have been outscored by a combined score of 41-2. Miller overall has a 4.12 ERA with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed, but the team is 0-8 in his past eight starts, with Miller giving up at least three runs in seven of those starts while posting a 7.19 ERA with 2.2 home runs per nine innings allowed. Red Sox starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval has a 4.20 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings, but faces a Mariners lineup that is 29th in scoring with less than four runs per game. The Red Sox are also second in bullpen ERA at 3.10.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -132
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -151
6:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease has been dominant this season with a 2.33 ERA and 2.42 fielding independent with 13 strikeouts per nine innings. While he is allowing 3.9 walks per nine innings, Guardians starting pitcher Joey Cantillo has had even bigger command issues, posting a 3.70 ERA with 9.6 strikeouts and 4.6 walks per nine innings. Both offenses are struggling, with the Blue Jays last in scoring with less than four runs per game and the Guardians 27th with just under 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -115
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -133
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones has had an issue allowing hard contact with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed, but is also getting 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings and faces a Giants lineup that, due to injuries, has only two players in its starting lineup with more than 10 home runs this season. Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp has a 4.25 ERA with a lower 3.71 fielding independent and only 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed, but is issuing 4.3 walks per nine innings and has allowed at least four runs in four of his past six starts.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline -140
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates -163
7:40 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
While the wind will be blowing out in Chicago during the early part of the day, it should be a bit more tame during the night. Cubs starting pitcher David Peterson’s 4.05 fielding independent points toward positivity on his 5.11 ERA with eight strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski is the National League Cy Young odds-on favorite with a 1.74 ERA and 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings while being supported by a bullpen that leads the National League in ERA since July 1 at 2.93.
Pick: Brewers vs. Cubs Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 6.9
10:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto has seen his 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings from last season go down to 8.7 this season but still has a 2.56 ERA. For his career, his ERA jumps to 3.27 at home with one home run per nine innings compared to a 2.05 ERA with 0.6 home runs per nine innings away from home. The Cardinals are third in the league in run production away from home with 5.1 runs per game and are expected to have Andre Pallante make this start. Pallante owns a 3.57 ERA with 0.7 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings, but pitches to a lot of contact with only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The Cardinals are also 24th in bullpen ERA at 4.49.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
