Jannik Sinner is coming off an impressive four-set win over Daniil Medvedev in the US Open quarterfinals, and the world No. 1 will now look to beat Jack Draper to book his spot in the final. Sinner, who won the Australian Open earlier in the year, is now a huge betting favorite to win the second Grand Slam of his career. But while this matchup looks good on paper, it does have the potential to be a little trickier than people think. In terms of raw talent, Draper is easily a top-10 player on the ATP Tour. The Brit will be out to prove that here.
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2024 Record: 766-758 (+25.88 units)
Jack Draper vs. Jannik Sinner Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish, but make sure you shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sinner -650, Draper +475
Spread: Sinner -6.5 Games (-110), Draper +6.5 Games (-120)
Total: Over 35.5 Games (-120), Under 35.5 Games (-110)
How To Watch Jack Draper vs. Jannik Sinner
Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium in Flushing Meadows, New York
When: Friday, September 6th
Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
Jack Draper vs. Jannik Sinner Predictions
I was able to find a good price on Over 33.5 games for this match, and that’s a number I like quite a bit. If you can’t find -133 on the Over at 33.5, I’d play it all the way up to -155. And if that’s not an option, I don’t hate it at 34.5.
There’s really no way of discounting what Sinner has done at this event. The Italian has had to deal with a ton mentally, as everybody has something to say about his doping tests. Dealing with that internally isn’t easy. However, Sinner played some of his best tennis of the season against Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals. Outside of a strange second set in which the Russian won 6-1, Sinner handled Medvedev pretty easily. In the end, it was a 6-2, 1-6, 6-1, 6-4 victory in favor of the 23-year-old. Sinner was ridiculous from the baseline, pounding the ball from one side to the other. Medvedev tried his best to match Sinner’s power, but it comes so easy for the Italian. For Medvedev, it means risking unforced errors. And he piled up 57 of them. That’s not normal for Medvedev.
Sinner now looks like he’s heading back to the final of a major, and he should ultimately win this tournament. DraftKings Sportsbook has him listed at -230 to do it from here. But that doesn’t mean that Sinner is going to make easy work of Draper. The Brit might not be a household name yet, but he’s one of the rising stars in men’s tennis. He has also played at a very high level since arriving in New York. Draper has had a pretty good draw to this point, but the Brit hasn’t yet dropped a set. He also played Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals, and that was a match that easily could have tested him.
The reason I like the Over here is that Draper is just so good as a server. A lot of players have struggled with their serves in New York, and that includes both of the players in this match. But when push comes to shove, both of them are capable of coming up with big holds. And a hold-heavy match is always a good thing when you’re hoping for a lengthy match.
Draper is also a much better returner than most players that possess his bomb of a serve. So, if Sinner does play a poor service game or two, Draper will make him pay for it. That should make the Brit live to take a set, but I prefer this play. This would open up the possibility of a win in a tightly-contested three-set victory for Sinner.
The one thing I’m a little nervous about is that Draper’s hamstring was taped when he played his quarter-final match. But the Brit was still able to hit his spots with his serve, and he was doing a good job of coming up and finishing points at the net. Doing that won’t be quite as easy against Sinner, who is better than anyone on the ATP Tour when it comes to passing players at the net. But Draper’s serves should be good enough to give him really good chances of finishing points early, whether it’s with a serve-plus-one or a quick volley.
Bet: Over 33.5 games (-133 – 1.5 units)
