On Monday, August 26th, the 2024 US Open, the final major of the tennis season, kicks off in Flushing Meadows, New York. The action at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center should be exciting, as this is the last chance for the top players in the world to really make a mark on the season. And the awesome thing about this year’s tournament is that we have some excellent early-round matches.
As always, I’ll be giving out tennis best bets throughout the course of the event. With that in mind, make sure you keep reading for my US Open predictions for the opening day of competition.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 721-716 (+25.85 units)
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Arthur Cazaux
Carreno Busta just had to withdraw early in the second set of his meeting with Alex Michelsen in the semifinals in Winston Salem. The Spaniard looks like he is close to being a consistent presence on the ATP Tour again, but he was going through it physically all week — which is to be expected for somebody that was out as long as he was. So, with not much time to turn around and get ready for the US Open, I just don’t think he can be trusted as a heavy favorite early on. Carreno Busta also happens to have a tough matchup in the opening round, as he’ll face the highly talented Cazaux. The Frenchman can have his own issues in the health department, but he also happens to have a lot of weapons on the court. And overall, his big game should give Carreno Busta a lot of trouble.
Cazaux has a lot of pop on his serve and can really batter the ball from the baseline. That’s going to demand a lot of Carreno Busta physically. Honestly, I just wouldn’t be surprised if the Spaniard doesn’t finish this match. That’s why I’m going moneyline over a small game spread. And I’m making sure to do it at a book that pays out after one completed set. If Carreno Busta was struggling to finish best-of-three matches in Winston Salem, how will he handle a best-of-five match in hot and humid New York conditions?
It’s also not crazy to expect Cazaux to win a full match here. I wouldn’t take this if I didn’t think he could. After all, I love his all-court power and he’s fresh coming into this event. At the very least, even if Carreno Busta doesn’t injure himself here, he will be a little fatigued after a deep tournament run.
Bet: Cazaux ML (+175)
Solana Sierra vs. Tatjana Maria
Sierra was one of the most impressive players in qualifying. After winning her first qualifying match in straight sets, she had to absolutely grind to win two matches that went to deciding thirds. But Sierra now has a great opening-round matchup. Maria is a miserable 13-23 since the start of 2024 and she’s also just 12-19 on hard courts in the last 52 weeks. The problem with Maria is that her serve is extremely returnable, and she really doesn’t have the ability to finish rallies from the baseline either. Her entire game is based on her ability to slice the ball, but Sierra should be able to take advantage of that. She moves pretty well around the court, but she also has some serious power.
The only way Maria can win this match is if Sierra just can’t find the court with her powerful groundstrokes. But I don’t see her turning in that type of performance. The Argentine is capable of grinding out wins herself, but she’s just a little more aggressive than her opponent here and that should make the difference in the end.
Bet: Sierra ML (+104 – 1.5 units)
Varvara Gracheva vs. Coco Gauff
There’s a pretty real chance Gauff ends up finding her game in New York. She’s the defending champion at this event and the crowd is going to be desperate for her to give them something. But until I see Gauff playing well again, it’s going to be hard not to fade her in some capacity. And in the opening round of this event, I’m doing it by taking Gracheva to win at least seven games.
Gracheva took a set off world No. 1 Iga Swiatek in Cincinnati, so she’s clearly capable of reaching a pretty high level. And overall, she’s just a very talented player. I like her backhand quite a bit, so I think she can hang with Gauff in backhand-to-backhand exchanges. I also think her and her team are smart enough to target the Gauff forehand frequently. None of the ranked players on the WTA Tour currently have a weakness as big as Gauff does on the forehand side.
Gauff is also struggling with her serve in 2024. Her double-fault percentage is nearly double what it was a year ago, and she has been guilty of completely throwing away service games all season long. All of that makes it hard to trust the American to win a match convincingly at this stage.
Bet: Gracheva Over 5.5 Games (-138 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
