The final major of the 2024 tennis season is here, as we’re already about a week into the US Open. The competition in Flushing Meadows has been fierce, as the top players in the world are hoping for one last big result at a Grand Slam. With that in mind, I’ll be handicapping all of the action over the next couple of weeks. That continues with my Day 6 tennis predictions and best bets for Saturday, August 31st. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate, but don’t stop there. Gill Alexander will be posting his best bets on the VSiN picks page daily, and I’ll also be adding some additional plays there.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 754-742 (+32.72 units)
Ashlyn Krueger vs. Liudmila Samsonova
Krueger is coming off a big upset over Mirra Andreeva. The American won 77% of her first serve points in that match, and her aggressive style of play made Andreeva uncomfortable. Overall, it was a tremendous performance, and Krueger now looks live in her third-round meeting with Samsonova. The Russian is a very a good hard-court player, but she has had some trouble handling her nerves in the past. Whether it’s a crazy atmosphere or big moment in a match, Samsonova lets things get to her and can be prone to emotional letdowns. Well, Krueger has absolutely nothing to lose here, and the American will have the crowd in her corner. That could add some real pressure to Samsonova.
Samsonova is a highly aggressive player in every aspect of the game. She goes big on her serve and she plays to hit winners from the baseline. All of that is good when you’re clicking. But if Samsonova is a little nervy, she’s at risk of racking up unforced errors. And I wouldn’t be surprised if she does that here. I also think that Krueger’s game, hitting flat strokes deep in the court and coming forward whenever she can, will rush Samsonova a bit.
Krueger is also a pretty big server, much like Samsonova. And it’s not often that the Russian runs into a player that can hold as easily as her. So, this is a match that should feature some competitive sets, and I just trust Krueger to come through with two of them.
Bet: Krueger ML (+158)
Jakub Mensik vs. Nuno Borges
Mensik just played a grueling five-set match against Tristan Schoolkate, so there are some concerns over how he’ll hold up physically here. But Mensik is just 18 years old and should really be fine after a full day of recovery. And the reality is that he’s just a lot more talented than Borges, making it hard to pass on him as a big underdog.
Borges is a very solid player. He’s decent as a server and returner, and he’s a tough baseliner. However, Borges can be pushed around by very powerful players, and Mensik qualifies as that. He has some serious pop from both wings, and I think he’s going to move Borges all around the court in this one. And when Borges is out of position, Mensik will then go to his elite drop shot.
Mensik is also a little more reliable as a server. Borges doesn’t generate power easily when it’s his turn to serve, so he generally has to work hard in his service games. Mensik doesn’t have the same problem. He’s going to be hitting bombs here, and that’s ultimately why I like the idea of playing the youngster.
I don’t think this will be a straightforward match, as Borges is a little better than Mensik when it comes to point construction. But the odds here just seem way off. This is more of a 50-50 match than a 60-40 one. And if you’re questioning what Mensik is capable of, just look at what he did to Felix Auger-Aliassime in the first round.
Bet: Mensik ML (+160)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action. That’s also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as picks for lower level ATP and WTA events.
