US Open predictions and best bets for Day 1 – August 24th:
We have reached the final major of the 2025 tennis season, as the US Open is underway from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. I’m going to be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout the course of this event, so make sure you’re coming back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on the action in Flushing Meadows, New York. Let’s get started with some Day 1 picks and predictions for Sunday, August 24th.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Nicolas Jarry vs. Jakub Mensik
Mensik won the first 1000-level title of his career this year, and he did that on the hard courts at the Miami Open. Realistically, with his big serve and impressive baseline game, Mensik is going to be a force on this surface for years to come. And the 19-year-old really should be able to beat Jarry in his opening-round match in New York. However, I’d be surprised if this isn’t a match in which both players serve their way to a set.
This season, Mensik has a hold percentage of 85.4%. Meanwhile, Jarry has a hold percentage of 84.0% in 98 ATP-level hard-court matches. These are two players that serve up bombs, but they both struggle to consistently get into the service games of their opponents. That leads me to believe that we’ll see some long, competitive sets in this match, and we might even see multiple tiebreakers. Well, if that’s the case, I can’t exactly see a scenario in which either player wins in straight sets.
The last time we saw Jarry, he went all the way to the Round of 16 after having had to play Wimbledon qualifying. That means he could be somewhat confident in another serve-friendly best-of-five format. That’s why it’s best not to treat him like the world No. 103. He was as high as 16th in the world in May of 2024.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-155)
Adrian Mannarino vs. Tallon Griekspoor
Betting on Adrian Mannarino is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get. Mannarino was tremendous in 2023, going 43-24 and winning three titles. However, in 2024, the veteran southpaw went 16-31. He then got off to a slow start to the 2025 season. But Mannarino is cooking now. Since the start of Wimbledon qualifying, the Frenchman is 16-5 across all levels of competition (main draw, qualifying, Challenger). And the last time we saw him, Mannarino put up a legitimate fight in a 6-4, 7-6 (4) loss to eventual champion Jannik Sinner in Cincinnati.
With Mannarino playing some good tennis, it’s just hard not to like him as a plus-money play against a struggling Griekspoor. The Dutchman obviously has a big serve, combined with an aggressive baseline game. That makes him dangerous in these conditions. But Griekspoor is on a four-match losing streak coming into this event, and he won only one set in the three hard-court tournaments he played. Also, it’s not like Griekspoor was playing elite players. In Canada, he lost in straights to Tomas Martin Etcheverry. He followed that up with a straight-set loss to Hamad Medjedovic in Cincinnati. Then, in Winston-Salem, it was Marton Fucsovics that ousted him in three sets.
I also like the on-court matchup here. Mannarino is going to dig in as a returner, so he’s going to make Griekspoor work for absolutely everything. And I’m not sure Griekspoor is a good enough returner to take advantage of a shaky Mannarino serve.
Bet: Mannarino ML (+120)
Luca Nardi vs. Tomas Machac
Machac has the type of high-end talent that should land him a spot in the Top 10 one day. However, the Czech player is a bit inconsistent when he’s healthy, and he also struggles to keep himself on the court. Machac retires from a ton of matches, which causes a lot of early tournament exits. It also makes it hard on him to establish any rhythm. That’s why Machac is just 17-14 since the start of 2025, and the 24-year-old is also struggling coming into this tournament. Machac has lost four of his last five matches, with one of them being a disappointing five-set loss against August Holmgren at Wimbledon. Well, with Machac not looking like himself, I like Nardi to keep things tight — and possibly even win — in this first-round match.
Nardi got demolished by Carlos Alcaraz in the Cincinnati Round of 16, but that wasn’t a match the Italian was expected to keep close. And honestly, it was impressive that Nardi even won three main-draw matches at all. Nardi is pretty clearly in decent form right now, and he’s the type of no-nonsense player that will make Machac work extremely hard in this match.
Nardi just needs to do a good job as a server in this match. He’s making just 57.6% of his first serves this season, which is very low after back-to-back years of making at least 62.2% of his first serves. But the serve was working pretty well in Cincinnati, so I trust the Italian to have a solid day with the ball on his racquet. That should be enough to make this a competitive battle.
Bet: Nardi +4.5 Games (-112)
Added Plays
I have plays on three other matches on the Pro Picks page for Sunday, August 24th right now.
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
