US Open predictions and best bets for Day 10 – September 2nd
We have reached the final major of the 2025 tennis season, as the US Open is underway from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. I’m going to be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout the course of this event, so make sure you’re coming back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on the action in Flushing Meadows, New York. We’ll continue with some Day 10 picks and predictions for Tuesday, September 2nd.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Jessica Pegula
Krejcikova isn’t making any friends at the US Open. The two-time Grand Slam champion has eliminated two Americans in a row, beating Emma Navarro 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 and then fighting off eight match points to defeat Taylor Townsend 1-6, 7-6 (13), 6-3. The crowd was firmly against her in both matches, but Krejcikova is a pro’s pro. She didn’t let any of that get to her. She just showed up, played her game and came up huge in key moments. Now, I don’t see any reason to doubt her against Pegula.
The reality is that Krejcikova hasn’t even played that well in this tournament, as her forehand has been shaky and her serve has been problematic, But Krejcikova did hit the forehand a lot better in the second half of the Townsend match, so I wonder if we’ll see her come out and hit it with conviction against Pegula. In many ways, having fought off elimination multiple times already, Krejcikova should feel like she’s playing with house money here. Meanwhile, Pegula is under all the pressure in the world with this being a home Slam. She’s also coming off a runner-up finish last year.
It’s also hard not to like the fact that Krejcikova has won two matches in a row against Pegula, and both of them came on hard courts. The most recent of the two was a straightforward 6-3, 6-3 win at the 2024 WTA Finals. So, Krejcikova will head to the court with the confidence that she can get this done.
I’m not going to get carried away with the moneyline in this one, as I do respect Pegula’s hard-court prowess. But I love Krejcikova to win a set, and I’ll take a bite out of the +205 moneyline.
Bet: Krejcikova +1.5 Sets (-126 – 1.5 units) & Krejcikova ML (+205 – 0.5 units)
Marketa Vondrousova vs. Aryna Sabalenka
When Vondrousova is healthy, she’s capable of beating anyone. And the 2023 Wimbledon champion sure looks healthy right now. She’s rolling in New York. After earning somewhat expected victories in her first two matches, Vondrousova announced herself as a contender with a 7-6 (4), 6-1 win over Jasmine Paolini in the third round. Then, against a red-hot Elena Rybakina in the Round of 16, Vondrousova came away with a 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 victory. Vondrousova is serving well, she’s looking sharp from the baseline and she’s battle-tested. That should give her a shot at making things competitive against Sabalenka.
Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set in this tournament, but she also hasn’t played anybody. Sabalenka looked to have a very tough draw when the bracket was first released, but Elise Mertens and Clara Tauson, two of the tougher players she looked set to face, were eliminated. And while Sabalenka deserves credit for easily handling the players in front of her, she hasn’t faced anybody that’s close to as good as Vondrousova.
Vondrousova has also given Sabalenka fits lately. While Sabalenka beat her 7-5, 6-1 in Cincinnati, the southpaw had won two in a row against Sabalenka heading into that match. Also, these two have met nine times and Vondrousova has taken at least a set in six of the nine matches.
This is just another women’s match in which I think the ‘dog is being undervalued a little. So, I’ll take the set and sprinkle the moneyline again.
Bet: Vondrousova +1.5 Sets (-110 – 1.5 units) & Vondrousova ML (+250 – 0.5 units)
Novak Djokovic vs. Taylor Fritz
I’m sitting on a +333 ticket on Fritz to win this quarter. And while I wouldn’t add anything on the American to win this match, I also wouldn’t advise hedging. You’ll burn into your potential winnings way too much by coming in with a play on the Serbian to win. And honestly, if I didn’t have any futures heading into this one, Fritz would be the play at +163.
Fritz’s 0-10 record against Djokovic is definitely concerning, but there’s a lot to like about the matchup. For starters, Fritz has been in absurd form dating back to the start of grass season. The American has played 30 matches since the start of Stuttgart, and his record since then is 25-5. One of the losses was a four-set battle with Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon semifinals, and that was a match in which Fritz had a good shot at pushing it to a decided fifth set. Also, looking strictly at 2025 Elo Rating heading into the US Open, there wasn’t much that separated these two players. Djokovic’s pre-US Open Elo Rating was 2089.6 and Fritz’s was 2031.7.
Fritz is just a different player now than the one that Djokovic used to beat up on. Sure, Djokovic did beat Fritz in Shanghai last year, and that was an event that was played a little after the American’s runner-up finish in this very event. But Fritz’s motivation level was low after achieving a career-best result. Let’s see how things look with Djokovic a little banged up, plus Fritz looking to return to the later stages of this tournament.
Fritz is also very tough mentally. I don’t see him going to the court and being mentally defeated by their head-to-head history. Instead, I imagine Fritz views this as a great shot at stopping the losing skid. Fritz has never been better, but Djokovic, at 38 years old, has shown serious signs of decline.
Djokovic definitely has looked a little better in his last two matches, and his serve has been particularly impressive. But let’s not forget he was playing Cameron Norrie and Jan-Lennard Struff. Going up against Fritz will be an entirely different beast. The American is really good at using his length to get returns in play, and Fritz’s ability to extend rallies should be valuable once he does. This is going to be a physically demanding match for Djokovic, who has had some health issues already this tournament.
I just see this as a match in which Fritz will force a few tiebreakers, and I like his chances of coming out on top in them. And if Djokovic isn’t 100% locked in, I can see Fritz having some success getting to his serve.
All in all, this feels like Fritz’s time to make a statement. And this is the stage in the tournament in which Djokovic’s body has failed him at the last couple of majors.
LEAN: Fritz ML (+163)
2025 Record: 1060-1049-1 (+41.12 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
