US Open predictions and best bets for Day 11 – September 3rd
We have reached the final major of the 2025 tennis season, as the US Open is underway from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. I’m going to continue providing you with daily tennis best bets for the remainder of this event, so make sure you’re coming back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on the action in Flushing Meadows, New York. Let’s get into some Day 11 picks and predictions for Wednesday, September 3rd.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Alex de Minaur
Auger Aliassime is on fire heading into the quarterfinals. The Canadian has only dropped one set this tournament, which is impressive considering he beat Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev in his last two matches. Auger Aliassime has a big serve, he moves pretty well and he can really rip shots from the baseline. With that in mind, the match against de Minaur will be on his racquet. However, Auger Aliassime isn’t a great returner, he’s mistake-prone and he can get tight in big moments. All of that is problematic against de Minaur.
De Minaur is one of the best returners on the planet, which is backed up by his 30.6% break percentage (fourth-best mark on ATP Tour in 2025). The Australian is going to dig in and force Auger Aliassime to be flawless as a server, and I think there’s a good shot de Minaur has him in hell for most of the match. Also, while de Minaur’s serve isn’t overpowering, his 84.4% hold percentage on hard courts is rather strong. Whether he’s hitting unreturnable serves or setting himself up for early advantages in rallies, he should be good enough with the ball on his racquet to hold easily against a weak returner like Auger Aliassime.
De Minaur’s advantage from the baseline should also be pretty big. As previously mentioned, Auger Aliassime is stronger and will hit bigger shots than de Minaur. But the Canadian is going to miss a lot more, and de Minaur is going to track down a lot of his shots. From there, the Australian will either redirect the pace to flip rallies around, or he’ll extract errors out of Auger Aliassime.
This simply feels likes a bad matchup for Auger Aliassime, as de Minaur is going to fight for absolutely everything and has a little more he can hang his hat on in big matches. De Minaur also won the most recent match between these two, snapping a two-match losing streak against Auger Aliassime. So, you really can’t even pick at the head-to-head history anymore.
Bet: de Minaur ML (-149 – 1.5 units)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinner should be able to beat Musetti in the quarterfinals. The world No. 1 is at his very best on hard courts, but Musetti has a losing record on this surface. However, at +135 odds, I’m throwing in a little something on the Musetti to take a set.
Musetti’s game doesn’t fit as well on hard courts as it does on grass or clay, where his off-speed stuff and elite court coverage give him a major edge. But Musetti has looked really confident in New York this tournament, as he has only dropped one set through four matches. And I believe the changes he has made to his serve have been instrumental in his success. Musetti is getting through his service games much easier than he usually does on this surface. Also, while his baseline game isn’t as good on hard courts as it is on natural surfaces, it’s not like he’s bad here. If he’s playing well, he can still give Sinner some problems. And I like that this is an all-Italian battle. Musetti will be motivated to give his fellow countryman a match.
Realistically, all Musetti needs is a good set or two as a server in order to give himself a chance. And for as good as Sinner looked against Alexander Bublik last match, he was just as shaky against Denis Shapovalov the week before. What if that Sinner shows up? It isn’t out of the question considering the nerves that will come with taking on somebody he knows well.
Bet: Musetti To Win A Set (+135 – 0.5 units)
2025 Record: 1061-1056-1 (+36.23 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
