US Open predictions and best bets for Day 3 – August 26th:
We have reached the final major of the 2025 tennis season, as the US Open is underway from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. I’m going to be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout the course of this event, so make sure you’re coming back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on the action in Flushing Meadows, New York. We’ll continue with some Day 3 picks and predictions for Tuesday, August 26th.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Sonay Kartal vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
Haddad Maia is a miserable 10-23 since the start of the 2025 season. The Brazilian has also lost four straight matches coming into this major, and some of the losses came against questionable opponents. A player of Haddad Maia’s caliber should be able to beat the likes of Dalma Galfi and Suzan Lamens, but the southpaw just hasn’t had it this year.
Haddad Maia is holding at only 66.4% this season, which is a sizable drop from last year’s 69.5%. She has also lost her way as a returner, breaking only 24.4% of the time. Haddad Maia had a break percentage of 34.5% in 2023 and 34.8% in 2024. She’s just not doing any damage on her opponent’s serve, and her own serve isn’t good enough to mask that. Her baseline game has also been less reliable than usual, which is why Kartal is a tough opponent.
Kartal is quick in moving around the court, she’s aggressive with her ground strokes and she’s a sharp player when it comes to tactics. She has also won at least one match in back-to-back majors, and she won three matches at Wimbledon. She won’t let the moment get to her.
Bet: Kartal ML (-133)
Marton Fucsovics vs. Denis Shapovalov
We have seen some high-level tennis from Shapovalov this season, but the Canadian has struggled to find any sort of consistency. The former world No. 10 has won two hard-court titles in 2025, playing dynamite tennis in Dallas and Los Cabos. However, he hasn’t really followed up those wins with any sort of real success. In fact, after winning the title in Mexico in July, Shapovalov got bounced right away in his home Masters with a straight-set loss against Learner Tien. He then lost to Luca Nardi in his opening-round match in Cincinnati.
Shapovalov still has all the firepower in the world, so he’s tough to beat when he’s in rhythm. But with him coming into this tournament on a bit of a skid, I like Fucsovics to advance.
Fucsovics is quietly 18-8 on the season, which is good for a career-best winning percentage (69.2%). He’s also in tremendous form right now, as he just won a title in Winston-Salem.
Bet: Fucsovics ML (+100)
Leandro Riedi vs. Pedro Martinez Portero
I absolutely love when a good on-court matchup meets a sharp betting spot. That’s exactly what we have here. Riedi just won three matches without dropping a set in qualifiers, and one of the 23-year-old’s wins came against a strong opponent in Otto Virtanen. Riedi has a big game, some nice power from the back of the court and an attacking mindset. He’s a player that can thrive when playing on hard courts. Meanwhile, Martinez is 10-19 on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, and he has never been as dangerous on this surface as he is on clay. So, this is a very winnable match for Riedi.
Riedi is also a pretty big betting favorite in this match, despite the fact that Martinez is nearly 400 spots better than him in the rankings. These are the types of matches in which the oddsmakers are trying to trap casual bettors, hoping they look at the rankings and jump on plus-money odds for the player they view as better. We’re not falling for that.
Bet: Riedi ML (-138 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I have two other plays on the VSiN picks page for Tuesday, August 26th.
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
