US Open predictions and best bets for Day 5 – August 28th
We have reached the final major of the 2025 tennis season, as the US Open is underway from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. I’m going to be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout the course of this event, so make sure you’re coming back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on the action in Flushing Meadows, New York. We’ll continue with some Day 5 picks and predictions for Thursday, August 28th.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Viktorija Golubic vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
I faded Haddad Maia in the opening round, as the Brazilian has been awful in 2025. Unfortunately, Sonay Kartal was banged up towards the end of the match, paving the way for a straightforward 6-1 win for Haddad Maia in the third set. But I was still largely unimpressed with the Brazilian’s level. She was marginally better than she has been for most of the year, as she does have some good crowd support at this tournament. But this is still a player that is struggling to make first serves, she’s not returning very well and her baseline game isn’t as difficult for opponents to deal with. With that in mind, I can’t understand how she’s a favorite against a solid player like Golubic.
Golubic earned a hard-fought win over Lois Boisson in the first round, coming away with a 3-6, 7-6 (3), 6-2 victory. The 32-year-old has now won seven of her last nine matches, as she made the final at a 125 in Warsaw in July and then won two matches in Cleveland. Golubic doesn’t have an overpowering game, but she’s crafty, she has very few weaknesses and she asks a lot of questions of her opponents. That last one is key when looking at this match, as she will make Haddad Maia earn a win here. I’m not sure the Brazilian can do it. Golubic will have no issue with letting Haddad Maia hit her way out of this match.
Haddad Maia did win the last time these players clashed, earning a 6-3, 7-5 win in Cleveland last year. But Haddad Maia hadn’t yet started her skid at that point, and Golubic had won their previous four meetings.
Bet: Golubic ML (+120 – 1.5 units)
Leandro Riedi vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Cerundolo showed a lot of heart in a comeback win over Matteo Arnaldi in the first round. The Italian won the first two sets in that match, but Cerundolo battled back to advance with a 3-6, 2-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-3 win. The issue is that Cerundolo had to withdraw from the National Bank Open a few weeks back, and an absolute grind of a match isn’t what he needed to kick off this tournament. I question how he’ll look physically, and I haven’t been too impressed with his recent form to begin with.
Before winning two matches in Canada, Cerundolo had suffered some bad results. He lost both of his grass-court matches this summer, then he went 2-2 over two smaller clay-court events (Bastad and Umag). Cerundolo’s second serve has been a major weakness, and his rally tolerance has been a nightmare. This is a player that can really struggle with unforced errors, so he’s very beatable when he’s not in a rhythm.
If the very best version of Cerundolo doesn’t show up on Thursday, he could be in trouble against Rieidi. The Swiss player went through qualifying without losing a set, and he then followed that up with a 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 win over Pedro Martinez Portero in the first round of main-draw action. Riedi is feeling extremely confident right now, he has a lot of weapons and he’s playing with house money. So, against a struggling — and potentially wounded — opponent, I’ll take a chance on him giving the Argentine a match.
Bet: Riedi +5.5 Games (-152 – 1.5 units) & Riedi ML (+195 – 0.5 units)
2025 Record: 1037-1027-1 (+35.35 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
