US Open predictions and best bets for Day 6 – August 29th
We have reached the final major of the 2025 tennis season, as the US Open is underway from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. I’m going to be providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout the course of this event, so make sure you’re coming back to VSiN if you’re looking to bet on the action in Flushing Meadows, New York. We’ll continue with some Day 6 picks and predictions for Friday, August 29th.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Luciano Darderi vs. Carlos Alcaraz
I liked Eliot Spizzirri to give Luciano Darderi a match in the opening round, and the American did make it a fight. However, in the end, Darderi was able to come away with a 6-0, 7-6 (3), 2-6, 6-4 victory. Darderi’s ability to punish the ball from the baseline proved to be a little too much, as he was ripping everything from both wings. He also served a little better in key moments.
Darderi has now won 12 of his last 14 matches, which is a stretch that includes two clay-court titles. Obviously, we’re now on a much different surface, but winning is winning. Darderi comes into this meeting with all the confidence in the world, and it’s not like he hasn’t been winning some matches on hard courts.
Of course, I don’t think Alcaraz is in any real danger of losing this match. However, it does seem outrageous that Darderi is nearly available at 3-1 odds to take a single set. Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set through two rounds, but it’s not like he’s a player that always handles his business with ease. The Spaniard has been guilty of playing with his food in the past, and this is also his worst surface. That said, I don’t think it’s crazy to expect Darderi to make a set or two competitive. And if he can, you’ll want to have a piece of him to get on the scoreboard. A half-unit play on this could get you nearly 1.5 units if it wins. It’s a low-risk, high-reward proposition.
Bet: Darderi To Win A Set (+287 – 0.5 units)
Adrian Mannarino vs. Ben Shelton
Not only does Shelton love playing in New York, but he’s one of the few players that raises his game at the majors. A lot of players get tight in the biggest moments of matches, but the American is seemingly immune to that. However, while Shelton doesn’t get scared in crunch time, he does occasionally get sloppy in the more boring stages of matches. That might cost him a straight-set win against this opponent.
Mannarino is such a solid player that he’ll have no problem riding the waves of this match. The veteran southpaw also happens to be in tremendous form right now. Dating back to the start of Wimbledon qualifying, the Frenchman is 18-5 in his last 23 matches. And one of the losses was a hard-fought battle against Jannik Sinner in the Cincinnati Round of 16.
Mannarino just brings an all-around skill set, a high tennis IQ and a quiet confidence to this match. He’s also very good at redirecting pace, so he won’t be bothered when Shelton hits the cover off the ball.
With all of that in mind, I’m going Over 3.5 sets in this match. The price is a little better for that than Mannarino to win a set, which is fine because I don’t see this being a straight-set win for the 37-year-old.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-147)
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Emma Navarro
In my pre-tournament futures piece, I mentioned that I liked the winner of an opening-round meeting between Victoria Mboko and Krejcikova to win this quarter. Unfortunately, I never saw a price I liked on either player to get to the semifinals. But I’ll still be looking for spots to back the Czech now, and this is definitely one of them.
Navarro was able to get by Caty McNally in the first round of this tournament, but the American has still had a lackluster 2025 season. She’s just 27-21 since the start of the year, her hold percentage is down 4.6% from 2024 and her baseline game hasn’t looked as crisp. That’ll make it hard to trust her against a player like Krejcikova, who peaks at the majors.
Navarro did beat Krejcikova at Wimbledon last month, but that was early in the Czech’s return from injury. Krejcikova has been playing a little more consistently lately, and she’s also playing some fantastic tennis. Krejcikova comes into this match after having won five of her last six, and she hasn’t yet dropped a set in New York.
I just like the way Krejcikova matches up with Navarro, as the two-time Grand Slam champion is aggressive, has good variety and is tremendous at the net. That said, Krejcikova is going to have a lot she can throw at Navarro, and the American could struggle if she doesn’t have her game right from the jump.
Bet: Krejcikova ML (+116 – 1.5 units)
2025 Record: 1037-1027-1 (+35.35 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
