In a rematch of last year’s Wimbledon semifinals, Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz will battle for a spot in the final at the All England Club. It was Alcaraz that emerged victorious when these two met here a year ago, but things could be very different this time around. While Alcaraz just won his third Grand Slam title, many believe his game has dipped a little in 2024. Meanwhile, Medvedev is playing with some real confidence right now. With that in mind, keep reading for our Medvedev vs. Alcaraz betting preview and Wimbledon predictions.
I also post more tennis predictions on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add some picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my picks. I’ll also post plays for smaller tournaments on that page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 507-513 (+32.92 units)
Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Moneyline: Alcaraz -320, Medvedev +250
Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 Games (-115), Medvedev +4.5 Games (-105)
Total: Over 39.5 Games (-105), Under 39.5 Games (-120)
How To Watch Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Where: All England Club in London, England
When: Friday, July 12th
Channel: ESPN
Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Predictions
Last year, Alcaraz earned a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 win over Medvedev in the Wimbledon semifinals. The Spaniard then went on to beat Novak Djokovic in the final, claiming the second Grand Slam title of his career. Of course, Alcaraz added to his trophy case with a French Open title in June. So, he’s undoubtedly feeling confident right now. Alcaraz has also won his last two matches against Medvedev in straight sets. One of those came at the ATP Finals last November and the other was at Indian Wells in March.
All of that might make it feel like Alcaraz is going to beat up on the Russian. However, let’s not forget that Medvedev earned a 7-6 (3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 victory over Alcaraz in their last meeting at a major. That victory for the Russian came in the 2023 US Open semifinals. And it should serve as a reminder that Medvedev is comfortable on the big stage and is a master strategist. He’s also not as far off from the top tier of Alcaraz, Djokovic and Jannik Sinner as the general public might think. We saw that in his five-set win over Sinner in the quarterfinals.
When he’s playing well, there are a lot of things that Medvedev can do to frustrate Alcaraz on a tennis court. For starters, Medvedev is one of the best returners on the planet. He stands deep in the court and uses his length to get serves back in the court, and that could give Alcaraz some trouble here. The Spaniard has not been serving well in London, which we saw in a big way in his meeting with Tommy Paul. But Paul wasn’t able to consistently hold himself, so he was giving those breaks back. Medvedev is a little sharper as a server, so he should take advantage when he gets in front.
Alcaraz will likely combat the Medvedev return by going to the serve-and-volley game. But he’ll need to be hitting his spots consistently in order to do that. Also, in their US Open match, Medvedev was able to consistently hit passing shots by Alcaraz. That’s why Medvedev’s form is so important. If he’s on his game, he can flirt with beating him. And it’s pretty clear he’s on his game right now.
Medvedev is also one of the best defenders in the history of the sport. He’s going to chase down every shot Alcaraz hits and try to force him to hit more. That could potentially lead to some unforced errors. That strategy is what has allowed Paul to find success against Alcaraz. Well, Medvedev is even better at it because he has more size. He also keeps the ball lower than Paul. That forces Alcaraz to get low and hit from uncomfortable angles.
Overall, it wouldn’t be shocking at all if Alcaraz wins this match. In fact, I expect him to do so. But +5.5 games is out there at a reasonable price for Medvedev, and that’s hard to turn down in a match that I think the Russian can actually win.
Bet: Medvedev +5.5 Games (-159 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
