For the second time in as many majors, Lorenzo Musetti will clash with Novak Djokovic. These two will battle one another for a spot in the Wimbledon final on Friday, July 12th. At the French Open, Musetti had a late lead on Djokovic, but the Serbian won the final two sets to advance to the fourth round. However, Musetti has continued to build on his game since then, while Djokovic went under the knife for a meniscus surgery shortly after his fourth-round win over Francisco Cerundolo. So, there’s no telling where this one might go. But I’ll do my best to predict what will happen in my Musetti vs. Djokovic betting preview below.
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2024 Record: 507-513 (+32.92 units)
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic Odds
Moneyline: Djokovic -700, Musetti +500
Spread: Djokovic -6.5 Games (+105), Musetti +6.5 Games (-130)
Total: Over 35.5 Games (-115), Under 35.5 Games (-110)
How To Watch Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic
Where: All England Club in London, England
When: Friday, July 12th
Channel: ESPN
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic Predictions
At the French Open, Musetti had a lead on Djokovic heading into the fourth set. From there, the 24-time Grand Slam champion seized control of the match. Djokovic ended up winning 7-5, 6-7 (6), 2-6, 6-3, 6-0 in four hours and 32 minutes. Djokovic is now 5-1 in six career meetings with Musetti, and two of the victories have come in Grand Slams. However, Musetti won two sets in both of their previous meetings at majors. And overall, the last three matches between these two have been competitive. That makes it hard not to like Musetti to win one set — especially at a reasonable price.
Musetti is coming off a five-set win over Taylor Fritz and has been playing with tape on one of his legs. So, it’s definitely understandable if you have concerns over Musetti’s fitness. After all, Djokovic got a walkover against Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals, so he has had three full days of rest. And his win over Holger Rune in his previous match was nice and quick. That surprisingly gives Djokovic a nice edge in the health department, even though the 37-year-old had knee surgery just four weeks ago. But even factoring that in, it’s hard to imagine Djokovic winning this thing in straight sets.
After Musetti blew a two-set lead over Djokovic at the 2021 French Open, it took him quite some time to build his confidence back up. But Musetti is now 29-18 since the start of the 2024 season, so his confidence should be at an all-time high. This is the best year he has had at the ATP level. Musetti has also been doing extremely well on grass. The Italian made it to the final at Queen’s Club, and he is now 18-9 on grass in his career. Sure, that doesn’t touch Djokovic’s grass-court success. The Serbian has won seven Wimbledon titles and is considered one of the best grass-court players of all time. But don’t come into this match making the mistake of thinking that Musetti can’t play on this surface. He can absolutely crush shots from both wings, he has a nice backhand slice and his serve is harder to return here.
All in all, Musetti might have to get over some demons in order to compete in this match, as he had Djokovic on the ropes in Paris and then the 37-year-old put his foot on the gas. But you’d have to think that Musetti now knows that his best level is good enough to hang in this matchup. So, if he comes out and executes at a high level, he should be able to put a dent in the scoreboard. Look for Musetti to test the Djokovic forehand in this one. In Paris, Musetti was switching up the looks he was giving Djokovic on that wing. That led to some mistakes from the Serbian.
I know that the quicker conditions are going to help Djokovic quite a bit, which is why I don’t think Musetti has as good of a shot at winning as he did in Paris. But I don’t think the change in surface will be enough for Djokovic to squash Musetti. The Italian is only getting better and better, while Djokovic is slipping a little.
Bet: Musetti +2.5 Sets (-140)
Added Plays
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