Wimbledon predictions and best bets for Day 5 – July 4th:
There’s nothing better than grass-court tennis at the All England Club, so we’re excited about Wimbledon over here at VSiN. Throughout the tournament, I’m going to be providing you with daily tennis best bets. That continues with the action on Friday, July 4th, so keep reading for my Day 5 Wimbledon picks.
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I occasionally add picks throughout the day, as I like to see how odds are moving. So, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday from 10:00 am to noon ET. That said, if you like tennis, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2025 Record: 828-806-1 (+32.97 units)
Adrian Mannarino vs. Andrey Rublev
I want to have a little something on Mannarino, but it’s hard to find a way to play this. Considering Mannarino’s 69.9% hold percentage this season, it wouldn’t be surprising if he has at least one set in which he loses 6-1 or 6-2. That makes it hard to back him at +5.5 games. I’m also not willing to deal with significant juice to take him to win a set. That said, I’m just putting a small play on the Frenchman to win the match at +250 odds. If it loses, it’s not the biggest blow to the bankroll. If it wins, it’ll still be a payout of more than a unit.
In his career, Mannarino is 73-53 on grass-court matches. He’s also 10-4 in the 14 matches he has played on the surface this year, and one of the losses was a close one against Daniil Medvedev. He’s just comfortable on this surface, as his serve becomes a little more dangerous, his flat strokes are hard for opponents to deal with and his willingness to come to the net is rewarded. His slice is also a weapon.
Rublev also happens to be playing some of the worst tennis of his life in 2025, and he’s just 22-12 on grass in his career. He’s a very difficult player to trust at the moment, and I can see Mannarino’s steadiness getting to him. Realistically, the reason I’m not playing the Over on games or sets is that it wouldn’t stun me if Mannarino wins this in four or less.
Bet: Mannarino ML (+250 – 0.5 units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Taylor Fritz
I played the Over on 3.5 sets in Fritz’s first two matches and we saw the American play five-setters in both of them. Of course, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Gabriel Diallo are big servers, and that’s really not Davidovich Fokina’s game. But the Spaniard is fully capable of pushing Fritz — and possibly even beating him.
We actually saw Davidovich Fokina take a set off Fritz in Eastbourne last week, and that’s the American’s best tournament. He’s a four-time champion there, and it brings out the very best in his game. So, the fact that Davidovich Fokina was able to get on the board there is pretty huge. Now, in a best-of-five match, played somewhere Fritz doesn’t perform as well, Davidovich Fokina will have more time and more opportunities to get himself on the scoreboard.
Realistically, these two have played five matches, with four of them featuring Davidovich Fokina winning a set. That said, I can’t really see him failing to do so in this one. And in the event the Spaniard does pull the upset, I don’t see him doing so in straights. This one should go four or five either way.
Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-167)
Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Struff appears to be playing his way into form. In his opening-round match, he earned a 6-2, 5-7, 6-3, 6-3 win over Filip Misolic. Then, he followed it up with an impressive 3-6, 7-6 (9), 6-3, 6-4 victory over Felix Auger-Aliassime. The German has always been a dangerous grass-court player, as he has a booming serve, is aggressive from the back of the court and isn’t afraid to come to the net. And if he happens to be playing even decently on Friday, I like him to avoid a massive blowout at the hands of Alcaraz.
Alcaraz really hasn’t looked great in his first two rounds here. He got pushed to five sets by 38-year-old Fabio Fognini in the first round, and that was honestly a match the Spaniard could have lost. Then, the world No. 2 had some trouble with Oliver Tarvet, who is a strong college tennis player but isn’t proven at the ATP level.
If Alcaraz doesn’t come correct in the third round, I just find it hard to believe he’s going to win by margin. That’s something he has struggled to do throughout his career. And even this year, Alcaraz is 22-26 against the spread in the matches Tennislytics has tracked. So, I’m taking Struff to cover 8.5 games, and I’m also putting a little something on him to win a set.
Bet: Struff +8.5 Games (-128 – 1.5 units) & Struff +2.5 Sets (+175 – 0.5 units)
Elise Mertens vs. Elina Svitolina
I’m not going to get too crazy with the on-court analysis with this one, as it’s really more of a number grab. These two met in Bad Homburg only 11 days ago, and that was a match in which Mertens was favored to win. Well, Svitolina ended up winning a tight one, emerging with a 7-5, 6-4 victory in a match that clearly could have gone either way. However, that result has these odds in a completely different spot, and I simply don’t agree with the movement.
I understand Svitolina is a dangerous player, and perhaps her ability to stay calm in high-leverage situations made the difference between these two last time. But this is a 50-50 match. The oddsmakers agreed only two weeks ago. That said, I’m playing Mertens as a ‘dog on principle alone.
Bet: Mertens ML (+130)
Emma Raducanu vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Raducanu just played the best match of her life, beating Marketa Vondrousova, the 2023 Wimbledon champion and winner of the 500-level event in Berlin two weeks ago, in dominant fashion. In that match, Raducanu was hitting big from the baseline, but she was also doing some insane scrambling. She was stealing points left and right, and she was having fun playing in front of an exciting British crowd. Now, Raducanu has to be entering her match against Sabalenka with supreme confidence, and I think this is one that can go either way.
There’s no denying that Sabalenka has a sizable advantage when it comes to power here, but Raducanu is a big ball striker herself. The Brit is also the better defender of the two. So, if she’s playing some solid tennis on Friday, she’s not going to look outclassed.
There’s also the crowd factor. It’s not uncommon for Sabalenka to melt down when playing a match with a crowd that is firmly against her. We just saw it in the French Open final. Well, this crowd is going to be going absolutely insane for Raducanu, as long as the 22-year-old gives them a reason to cheer. That’s hard to ignore.
Bet: Raducanu +1.5 Sets (+106 – 1.5 units) & Raducanu ML (+300 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
