The WTA Finals brings together the eight best players in women’s tennis for a showcase event that always delivers drama, unpredictability, and elite-level competition. With the weekend approaching, we’re now down to the final four in Riyadh. In the first semi-final match on Friday, November 7, Elena Rybakina will take on Jessica Pegula. In the second, it’ll be Amanda Anisimova versus Aryna Sabalenka in a rematch of the 2025 US Open final. I already have a future on Rybakina to win this event at +750, so I won’t be touching her match against Pegula. However, you can keep reading for my thoughts on Anisimova-Sabalenka.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Amanda Anisimova vs. Aryna Sabalenka
These two have been alternating wins for five matches now. Sabalenka won 6-3, 7-6 (3) in the last meeting, getting revenge for a Wimbledon loss by defeating the American in the 2025 US Open final. However, it was interesting that match even got that tight. Anisimova didn’t come close to playing her best tennis, with nerves clearly getting the better of her — just not worse than when she got double-bageled by Iga Swiatek in the Wimbledon final. There won’t be nearly as much pressure on her in this match, which should allow her to play her game and make a real push towards winning this match.
It’s just hard not to feel like Anisimova’s game can give Sabalenka fits. The American has the best backhand in the world, giving her a weapon she can really do damage with along the baseline. That said, if she’s hitting her forehand well, there will be many ways she can hurt Sabalenka.
Anisimova is also just as dangerous as Sabalenka as a returner. So she’ll be in the Belarusian’s service games. We’ll just need Anisimova to serve well herself in this one. That’s not always a given, but she has been sturdy as a server for months now. That’s part of the reason she has taken her game to new heights.
It’s simply hard to imagine Anisimova going down without a fight here. She has won six of their 10 matches at the WTA level, and she has won at least one set in seven of those matches. Anisimova should also be pretty high in confidence after an impressive win over Swiatek to book her spot in the elimination rounds.
Bet: Anisimova +1.5 Sets (-148 – 0.5 units) & Anisimova ML (+188 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
