Saturday’s NFL Wild-Card action: Down 18 at halftime, the Bears (+1.5) rallied to beat the Packers 31-27. In the opener, the Rams needed a late TD to beat the Panthers 34-31 (but didn’t cover the -10).
If the Eagles beat the 49ers today, they play at Chicago and the Rams play at Seattle in the divisional round. If the 49ers win, they play at Seattle and the Rams go to Chicago.
The Bills come due
Is this Josh Allen’s time to shine?
The betting market doesn’t think so.
The Bills opened as small favorites vs. the Jaguars, but by Saturday night most books had the line at Jacksonville -1.5.
Matt Youmans has a slightly more favorable opinion of Allen and the Bills:
With Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Lamar Jackson (Ravens) and Joe Burrow (Bengals) left out of the AFC playoff party, Josh Allen is clearly the best quarterback in the bracket and the door appears to be as open as ever for the Bills to make a Super Bowl run. History is not on Buffalo’s side, however. Allen is 5-8 ATS in the playoffs, including 0-4 straight up on the road, and the Bills have dropped eight straight playoff road games since last winning one in 1993.
The Jaguars come in on a heater, winning and covering eight straight games to finish 13-4 and first in the AFC South. Liam Coen has done an impressive coaching job in Jacksonville while helping to elevate the play of quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The key to this matchup will likely be the Jaguars’ run defense, which ranks No. 1 in the league by allowing 85.6 yards per game, against Allen and NFL rushing leader James Cook (1,621 yards, 95.4 per game).
The Jaguars are the more popular side with a majority of handicappers. This is a coin flip and I’ll hesitantly side with the road team. It seems to be Allen’s time to shine and it’s almost now or never for him.
👉 Matt’s Best Bets for the rest of the Wild-Card round.
Here are today’s games with links to VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen‘s previews:
Bills (+1.5) at Jaguars – 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
49ers (+6) at Eagles – 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Chargers (+3.5) at Patriots – 8 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
Other Best Bets columns
Josh Appelbaum will post his NFL Sharp Report this morning.
Other NFL resources
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
CFP line at Indiana -7.5 for now
Early wagering, based on the VSiN betting splits, would suggest that there is no shortage of support for Indiana -7.5 vs. Miami in the CFP title game.
But, as Adam Burke points out, there is a lot of time before kickoff on Monday, Jan. 19:
Much like the Super Bowl, with a standalone game and some extra time for the line to marinate, every angle about this game will be exhausted by analysts, pundits, and prognosticators. Expect a holding pattern for a few days while everything settles in. You’ll start to see the public players swayed by things that they read, hear, and see and you’ll start to see the influential bettors marking their territories as the betting limits increase on the game.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
College Basketball: Greg “Hoops” Peterson has his Best Bet for today’s menu.
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NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
