NFL Week 12 is upon us with the Bills as 6-point favorites vs. the host Texans tonight (8:15 ET, Amazon Prime).
I will be honest with you: Not a lot of conviction from VSiN’s experts on this one.
Zach Cohen steps up to preview the game:
I think Houston’s defense will show up in this massive home game, and I like the Texans offense to move the ball against a below-average Bills defense. We have seen far too many shaky performances out of Buffalo to expect this group to go out and win by a touchdown or more in a tough road spot. Plus, this is a game in which everybody on the planet will be on the Bills. Things are never that easy.
👉 Zach’s analysis plus a prop bet.
FYI: Zach made his pick at +6.5, so I asked him if he still liked the Texans at +6:
Yeah I do. Not my highest confidence pick in the world, but that’s how the primetime games always are for me.
Fair enough.
Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley has this to say:
Houston QB Davis Mills has been serviceable in place of C.J. Stroud, and the Texans’ defense is doing its job, but still not confident the D can contain Josh Allen and Co. enough for Mills to keep this within one score.
👉 So Dave is taking a pass on this one, but he has takes on all the other games here.
Steve Makinen will file his NFL Best Bets column later today, but he has posted his Week 12 Analytics Report.
Steve has a lot of system matches and trends for this game — some of them conflicting — so I ran it all through ChatGPT.
The computer spit back a slight lean on the Bills at -6 and a more confident play on the Under (43.5), citing these trends:
➡️ Josh Allen is 37-22 Under the total on the road since 2018
➡️ Houston Under vs winning teams under DeMeco Ryans: 17-6 Under
➡️ 19 of last 29 TNF home dog games have gone Under 43.5
👉 More in Steve’s Analytics Report.
Josh Appelbaum’s TNF Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
Want a heads-up when it hits? Turn on VSiN’s push notifications.
More TNF resources
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
>Opta AI prop projections for the game.
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
>VSiN Pro subscribers have access to our NFL picks page with plays from hosts and guests.
Week 12 QB updates: Joe Burrow participated in a full practice for the first time since his Week 2 toe injury. Thanksgiving return? Aaron Rodgers didn’t practice his a broken left hand, but still hasn’t ruled out playing vs. the Bears. Michael Penix Jr. needs knee surgery and will be out the rest of the season. Shedeur Sanders will start vs. the Raiders.
Everything we post on NFL Week 12 will be here.
Sun Belt action tonight
Adam Burke has a play on the lone game on tonight’s college football menu: Louisiana (+3) at Arkansas State (7:30 ET, ESPN).
Steve Makinen has a pick on the Total on this game among his Best Bets for this week.
More CFB resources
Everything we post on CFB Week 13 will be here.
Today in college basketball
Greg “Hoops” Peterson has his picks for today’s college basketball menu.
Greg also posts daily handicapped lines and handicaps every game every day during the season on the Coast-to-Coast Hoops podcast.
Adam Burke will offer his college basketball Best Bets Monday-Saturday. You can find them on our college basketball page mid-morning.
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Quick Hits
Auto Racing: I believe I have admitted this before, but I am addicted to watching every F1 race. Problem is, I’m not awake for the early start times. But a 8 p.m. Vegas start time on Saturday is right in my wheelhouse. We enlisted Cody Zeeb from the Sports Gambling Podcast Network to give us some Best Bets on the race.
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets column and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Horse Racing: 1/ST BET handicapper Jeremy Plonk has picks for opening day at the Fair Grounds.
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