Maybe Mitch Moss‘ luck will rub off on the rest of us this weekend. Just a few minutes after his Friday show ended at Circa, the host of Follow The Money hit a Royal Flush on Ultimate X, good for a $17,000 hand pay.
Nothing like Fight Night in Fabulous Las Vegas, but first we have college football.
The line for today’s marquee matchup, Georgia at Tennessee (3:30 ET, ABC), has fluctuated quite a bit this week, mainly because of injuries to both sides.
It has been anywhere from Georgia -7 to -3.5 until settling on Friday at -4. Georgia is missing two starting offensive linemen; Tennessee again will be without its two starting cornerbacks.
Zach Cohen previews the SEC matchup:
Even putting the injury report aside, there are some real reasons to look to the Volunteers here.
Let’s see what the contestants in the Circa Friday Football Invitational did with this game.
- Brett McMurphy: Georgia (-4)
- Doug Kezirian: OVER (50)
- Kenny White: UNDER (50)
- Randy McKay: UNDER (50)
- Chris Macero: UNDER (50)
>All 175 picks from 25 handicappers here.
>Check for the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest selections after the 10 a.m. ET deadline.
Zach also previewed the Texas A&M-Notre Dame game and offered his Best Bets on several others.
Other Best Bets columns on VSiN.com:
Josh Appelbaum’s CFB Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
>CFB Week 3 Hub page with everything we’ve posted this week, including today’s 12 games that fit Steve’s stability score system.
NFL Week 2 approaches
Have you picked your Week 2 survivor?
Adam Burke runs through the candidates, including the most obvious (Ravens -12 vs. the Browns).
But, hey, we don’t do obvious here at VSiN. Plus if you are in Circa Survivor, you might want to save the Ravens for Thanksgiving.
Instead, Adam goes with the Cardinals:
At time of writing, Circa was hanging -7 while the rest of the market was -6.5. It looks like they’re fishing for anybody interested in taking the Panthers. Carolina looked objectively terrible last week against the Jaguars. Bryce Young was 25th out of 26 QBs with at least 32 plays in Week 1 in EPA+CPOE (expected points added + completion percentage over expected), better than only Russell Wilson. Kyler Murray was 14th, but a lot of that had to do with a low average depth of target.
Don’t forget to watch The Football Contest Show (9-10 p.m. ET) with Matt Brown and Mike Somich. Circa’s Derek Stevens and Jeff Benson will announce the consensus picks for the Circa Million, Survivor and Grandissimo.
Everything we do on Week 2 is posted here.
Fight night
We have 10 hours of UFC and boxing action today.
Lou Finocchiaro has his picks for the Noche UFC in San Antonio (3 p.m. ET for prelims). Britton Hess will have his plays later this morning.
Don’t miss the latest episode of First Strike — Dave Ross, Rob Moreno and special guest Jordan Sherwood break down the card with their top betting insights and favorite plays. >>Watch. >>Listen.
And for the main event, Canelo Alvarez (-163 at Circa) takes on Terence Crawford (+143) at Allegiant in Las Vegas (9 p.m. ET, Netflix). I’ll be watching at Circa’s Stadium Swim.
Alvarez, 35, is the undisputed super middleweight champion; Crawford, 37, is undefeated in 41 bouts and moving up two weight classes.
Adam Burke writes:
Crawford’s the far more aggressive thrower by volume, so it makes sense that some are concerned about the weight increase and how he fares in the later rounds. History would tell us that he’ll be just fine and it says a lot that this is Canelo’s smallest favorite role in a very long time.
We had Boxing Hall of Fame announcers Jim Lampley and Al Bernstein (also a VSiN alumnus) on shows this week.
Jim told Cashing Out host Dustin Swedelson:
I don’t think Crawford can win if he’s not going to be aggressive. I think Crawford is the one on whom the responsibility is going to fall to make the fight because Canelo is a great counter-puncher, good defender and he’s by the bigger puncher in the fight. The way for Crawford to win is to make a storm in the first round and keep that storm going all the way through the fight. Win with aggression and activity. If he cannot do that then it’s hard for me to imagine he wins the fight. It’s got to be a faster paced fight to accommodate Terence Crawford’s needs. If it’s a slower paced fight in any way shape or form, that plays into Canelo’s hands.
Al told A Numbers Game host Gill Alexander said he didn’t think Crawford could KO Alvarez and might have a tough time swaying the judges on a decision.
Crawford is +950 to win by KO.
Quick Hits
MLB: Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s MLB menu. Steve Makinen will post his contribution later this morning.
Soccer: Nigel Seeley has his top plays for this weekend’s EPL menu.
Horse Racing: Mike Somich and Aaron Halterman have picks for today’s Kentucky and Oaks prep races at Churchill, among many topics on the VSiN At The Track podcast.
>Watch.
>Listen.
Mike and “Mr. Ed” Sehon have their picks for today’s menu on our horse racing page.
Horse racing coverage is sponsored by 1/ST BET. Get your $250 sign-up bonus.
NASCAR: Steve Makinen has posted his final simulation for tonight’s race at Bristol and shared his predictions:
Top 5: Blaney, Larson, Bell, Hamlin, Briscoe
Top underdogs to consider: Gibbs, Allmendinger, Haley, Hocevar, Berry
Favorites to struggle: Byron, Reddick, Logano, Beuscher
>Adam Burke previews the race with more from Steve.
