Tonight’s College Football Playoff opener should be the most competitive game of the first round — at least based on the point spread.
Alabama opened as a 1.5-point favorite vs. Oklahoma when the bracket pairings were announced on Dec. 7. But that line has flipped to Sooners -1.5 or -1.
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen previews the game (8 ET, ABC/ESPN):
The big thing to watch here is the Oklahoma offense vs. the Alabama defense. As good as QB John Mateer has looked at times, the Sooners are just 47th in the nation in EPA per play (0.054). That’s going to be the worst unit on the field, by far. And there’s a real chance Alabama comes out and really stifles this team. Oklahoma gets next to nothing on the ground, putting a lot on Mateer as a thrower.
👉 More from Zach, including his play.
VSiN analytics maven Steve Makinen weighs in with his opinion:
I love the fact that Alabama is being doubted after its season-ending slump, and getting a reprieve here with a perhaps undeserved bid could motivate them. I also feel like the better team lost the earlier game between these teams, as the Tide fell 23-21 despite outgaining the Sooners 406-212.
In my humble opinion, Oklahoma was one of the least deserving teams for a CFP berth by none other than the eye test. The OU offense scored just 21.5 PPG in SEC play, and they will need more than that to win this game if Alabama puts up that type of offensive production again.
The Tide also are backed by this angle: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 63-24 SU and 54-32-1 ATS (62.8%) in the next game since November of ’21.
Steve liked Alabama at -1.5 when made his bet, so he really likes this at Tide +1.5.
👉 More CFP and bowl bets from Steve. He also compiled a list of ATS records and trends for the CFP teams.
I checked the VSiN College Football Playoff Betting Guide for more Best Bets from our hosts and analysts. I’m having a hard time finding much support for Oklahoma.
👉 Buy your VSiN CFP Betting Guide for just $14.99.
To make sure we provide you with the latest opt-outs and lines, we post our individual bowl previews on VSiN.com.
Tonight’s other games
>Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State (+3) vs. Western Michigan, 11 a.m. ET (ESPN)
>Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis (+3.5 from +4.5) vs. NC State, 2:30 ET (ESPN)
Saturday
>CFP: Miami (+3) at Texas A&M, Noon ET (ABC/ESPN)
>CFP: Tulane (+17) at Ole Miss, 3:30 ET (TNT)
>CFP: James Madison (+21) at Oregon, 7:30 ET (TNT)
Everything we do during bowl season is posted here.
Others CFB resources
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the CFB Picks page.
NFL Game of the Year
The Seahawks seized control of the NFC’s No. 1 seed by beating the Rams 38-37 on a two-point conversion in OT. Seattle didn’t cover the closing line of -2.5 at Circa (or -1.5 at DraftKings).
The Seahawks were down 16 points in the fourth quarter, but came back and tied it at 30 on an unorthodox two-point conversion that required official review. Rams WR Puka Nacua finished with 225 receiving yards (Over 92.5) and two TDs, including one in OT. And then he doubled down on his criticism of the officials.
Seattle (12-3) has a tougher remaining schedule, at Panthers and at 49ers. The Rams (11-4) play at Falcons and vs. the Cardinals. The 49ers (10-4) could still be the No. 1 seed, but need to win out (Colts, Bears, Seahawks).
Next NFL showdown: Bears-Packers
Zach Cohen previews Saturday’s NFL doubleheader: Eagles-Commanders and Packers-Bears.
The Bears and Packers both had key injury updates on Thursday.
Chicago: WRs Luther Burden III (ankle) and Rome Odunze (foot) are out. RB D’Andre Swift (groin) and TE Cole Kmet (ankle/knee) are questionable.
Green Bay: WR Christian Watson (chest/shoulder) and RB Josh Jacobs (knee/ankle) are questionable.
Everything we do on Week 16 will be posted here.
Circa Friday Football resumes
Matt Youmans will announce 77 picks from 11 contestants tonight on the Circa Friday Football Invitational show (7-10 ET). The picks are posted on VSiN.com after the show and VSiN Pro subscribers get an email from me with all of them.
Guests include Circa owner Derek Stevens, who put up $30,000 in prize money, and Brent Musburger, plus contestants Scott Pritchard, Chris Piper, Carl Sack and Matt Ste. Marie.
Pritchard is one point behind leader Chris Macero heading into Week 16. Steve Fezzik and Alex White were last week’s cuts. 👉 Standings.
The show is sponsored by Omaha Steaks. (I had a delicious double smash burger from Omaha Steaks for dinner.)
Congrats to Jeff Kanacki, the Week 15 winner in the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest. Joe gets $500 in an EdgeBoost account. 👉 Leaderboard.
The fourth quarter starts today, so there is still time to enter and win. 👉 Sign up here.
Quick Hits
Boxing: Before you consider betting on tonight’s Jake Paul-Anthony Joshua fight in Miami, you should read Adam Burke’s analysis.
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
College Basketball: Greg “Hoops” Peterson has his Best Bets for today’s menu. Adam Burke offers his college basketball Best Bets Monday-Saturday. You can find them on our college basketball page mid-morning.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Horse Racing: On VSiN At The Track, Mike Somich and Aaron Halterman preview Saturday’s races. 👉 Listen / Watch.
“Mr. Ed” Sehon has picks for today’s menu at Gulfstream.
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