Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley is basking in the glow of the NFL Week 5 underdogs who won 9 of the 14 games outright.
NFL Week 6 kicks off tonight with the Giants as 7- or 7.5-point home dogs against the Eagles in a divisional matchup (8:15 ET, Amazon).
Count Dave in.
The conventional wisdom out there is that the Eagles will bounce back from the loss and that cream rises to the top with the better team being helped by the short week, but I actually believe the short week does the opposite, leveling the playing field for the underdog (as we’ve seen so far this season).
>>Dave’s Takes on all 15 games this week.
In his preview, Zach Cohen focuses on the Total (40.5 at DraftKings/40 at Circa):
These are two bad offenses right now. The Eagles are 17th in the NFL in EPA per play (0.030), which isn’t nearly as high as it should be given the talent on the roster. But the Giants are every bit as bad offensively as their -0.084 EPA per play, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league.
Steve Makinen has trends and system plays for TNF and beyond.
Josh Appelbaum’s TNF Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
Everything we post on NFL Week 6 will be here.
More MNF resources
>Opta AI prop projections for the game
>VSiN Pro subscribers have access to our NFL picks page with plays from hosts and guests.
Phillies, Cubs face brink again
The Tigers, Cubs and Phillies survived their elimination games. The Yankees did not.
Dave Tuley’s Report: Underdogs went 3-1 with Tigers (short -103 home dogs) rallying to beat Mariners 9-3 (Over 8.5 runs); Cubs (-110 home faves) beating Brewers 4-3 (Over closing total of 6.5); Blue Jays (+150 road dogs) beating Yankees 5-2 (stayed Under 8.5 runs) and Phillies (+159 road dogs) routing Dodgers 8-2 to avoid elimination (went Over 7.5); Overs 3-1
Which brings us to today’s NLDS Game 4s:
Phillies (+107 at DK) at Dodgers (-130), 6:08 ET. LA leads 2-1.
Brewers (-114 at Circa) at Cubs (+102), 9:08 ET. Milwaukee leads 2-1.
Greg Peterson has Best Bets on both games.
Adam Burke will file his Best Bets and Steve Makinen will have his Analytics Report later this morning.
Thursday night CFB
There are four college football games tonight, but Adam Burke shines his light on East Carolina (+6.5) at Tulane.
A lot of similar metrics, but Tulane has played the better schedule and the dual-threat nature of Jake Retzlaff truly makes the difference.
>Adam’s analysis and Best Bet.
Steve Makinen has posted his top plays for Week 7, including for Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State and Southern Miss at Georgia Southern.
Wednesday steam alerts from DonBest Sports:
NIU pk Eastern Michigan
Virginia Tech +15 vs. Georgia Tech
Northwestern +15 vs. Penn State
Western Michigan -8.5 vs. Ball State
Troy +9 vs. Texas State
Get these steam alerts and more in real time from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
>CFB Week 7 Hub with stories and resources.
On the VSiN College Football Betting Podcast, Tim Murray updates the John Mateer situation at Oklahoma and breaks down the big games with VSiN’s Wes Reynolds and Brett Ciancia from PickSix Previews. “Hoosier Wes” is all over Oregon-Indiana. >Watch. >Listen.
Quick Hits
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day. Steve Makinen makes daily power ratings that generate an estimated score for every game that is displayed on our NHL matchups page.
UFC: Lou Finocchiaro has his top plays for Saturday’s card in Rio de Janeiro.
Horse Racing: 1/ST BET handicapper Jeremy Plonk has picks for today’s card at Keeneland.
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