As we get closer to today’s kickoffs, the money is coming in on the underdogs.
In the AFC Championship, the Patriots-Broncos line moved from Denver +4 to +3.5 (after opening at +5.5). In the NFC Championship, the Rams-Seahawks line has been pretty steady all week at LA +2.5, but Circa moved to +2 on Saturday.
From Steve Makinen‘s Championship Sunday betting trends: Since 2005, you would be 19-9 ATS (67.9) by following the line moves.
So the betting markets are talking, but let’s see what VSiN’s experts have to say.
Patriots at Broncos, 3 ET (CBS)
Matt Youmans: This matchup is not all about Jarrett Stidham. Denver’s defense has not been elite lately, but one thing the Broncos always do is pressure the passer. Denver has registered 71 sacks this season, and the Patriots have allowed 58 sacks, so how Drake Maye and the New England offensive line handle the pressure is a major key to the game.
🏈 Zach Cohen’s betting preview.
Rams at Seahawks – 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Wes Reynolds: The two meetings between these teams produced these numbers:
Points Scored
Rams: 58; Seahawks: 57
Total Yards
Rams: 830; Seahawks: 829
The numbers would indicate a coin-flip game, and it likely will be. However, if you watch the two games in their entirety, the Rams outplayed the Seahawks in six and perhaps seven of the eight quarters.
More Best Bets columns
Josh Appelbaum will post his NFL Sharp Report this morning.
AI picks on AFC & NFC title games
We have posted everything we’ve done on the conference championships on this page, but here are a few more highlights from our coverage.
I ran Steve Makinen’s Analytics Report through AI to see what picks computer spit out:
🔥 Top Bets
NE–DEN Under 42.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
LAR–SEA Over 46.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Total is down to 45.5 at Circa)
I also always check the Opta AI player prop projections. Here are the largest deltas between the projection and the DraftKings line:
➡️ Drake Maye, Patriots: 271.30 passing yards for Opta AI vs. DK line of 222.5 (48.80 Over)
➡️ RJ Harvey, Broncos: 39.5 rushing yards for Opta AI vs. DK line of 39.5 (12.19, Over)
➡️ Demario Douglas, Patriots: 36.4 receiving yards for Opta AI vs. DK line of 12.5 (22.92, Over)
Other NFL resources
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
In NFL coaching news, the Steelers have picked Mike McCarthy as their new head coach.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
College Basketball: Greg “Hoops” Peterson has picks for today’s college basketball menu.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Australian Open: You will be able to get Zach Cohen‘s daily Best Bets here on our special Aussie Open page. Zach and Gill Alexander add their picks to our tennis picks page. Gill usually sends them to me around 3 p.m. Vegas time.
