Where does the Rams’ +3.5 ATS loss to the Eagles rank in the pantheon of bad beats?
VSiN PrimeTime host Matt Youmans asked that question on X after the Rams had a potential game-winning field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown, giving the Eagles a 33-26 victory.
He got some good, if painful, answers.
Taking sides on Monday Night Football — or not.
I read through VSiN.com and found three different opinions on tonight’s Lions-Ravens game:
Steve Makinen makes the case for Ravens -4.5.
Detroit’s offensive effort last week was extraordinary as QB Jared Goff & Co. put up 52 points and 8.8 yards per play. That type of effort doesn’t tend to last: NFL teams that have gained an explosive 8.75 yards per play or more in any given game have responded the next week by going just 25-22-1 SU and 17-29-2 ATS (37%) in their last 48 tries. Plus, they are meeting a Ravens team on MNF that is even better offensively, and teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 20-8 SU and ATS (71.4%) since 2015.
Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley makes the case for the Lions +4.5:
I really see this game as a shootout that could very well come down to a field goal. With that in mind, I have to love the Lions getting anything more than a field goal as that looks more like the true line than the Ravens -6.5 we saw earlier in the week. I usually don’t like taking a public dog like this, but the Circa figures on the VSiN Betting Splits Page have 67% of the bets on the Ravens but 52% of the handle on the Lions, which is indicative of the sharper/bigger bets being on the dog and hopefully the right side.
In his game betting preview, Zach Cohen makes the case for, well, um . . .
I’d just sit out with the side in this one. It’s a little too early in the year to know whether or not this Detroit team is similar to last year’s Detroit team. And last year’s squad would have been a bet-on group getting 4.5 in this spot.
I also checked our NFL picks page to see what hosts and Circa Friday Football Invitational contestants did with this game.
- Gill Alexander: Ravens (-4.5)
- Kelley Bydlon: Ravens (-5.5)
- Mike North: Ravens (-4.5)
- Jeff Petch: Ravens (-4.5)
- Matt Ste. Marie: Ravens (-4.5)
(More to come today, no doubt, including John Hansen‘s prop picks.)
Josh Appelbaum will post his MNF Sharp Report later this morning.
MNF resources
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
>Opta AI Player Prop Projections
NFL Week 3 recap / Week 4 lookahead
Dave Tuley’s ATS report: Favorites led 11-3 SU & 9-5 ATS on Sunday with upsets by CLE, CAR & CHI; home teams also led 11-3 SU & 9-5 ATS; Unders led 8-6.
Adam Burke looks at the early line movement for the Week 4 schedule. I enjoyed this excerpt on the Bears at Raiders:
Sometimes I think being an oddsmaker would be really cool. Then I see a game like this and think about the discussions that take place in the risk room about how to line it. DraftKings had a very strong position and one opposite the market on Sunday night with the Bears as a 1.5-point favorite. BetMGM was also Bears -1. Circa, Fanduel, Superbook, and Caesars all had short favorite numbers on Las Vegas. Given the diametrically opposite outcomes in Week 3, I don’t fault any book for taking a position on either side of the favorite ledger. Now let’s see what bettors think.
Contest Corner
Here’s a contest roundup:
>Circa Survivor: We’re down to 13,841 entries — with 30 pending on the Ravens — as losses by the Packers (1,817 / 10.7%) and Falcons (1,179 / 7%) took a chunk out of the field.
>Circa Grandissimo: Ten entries were eliminated — 8 on the Packers and 2 on the Falcons — so we are down to 58.
>Circa Million: The top 5 consensus picks went 1-4.
>Circa Friday Football Invitational: The team of Frank Betti and Anthony Curtis went 7-0 to take the lead, 2 points ahead of Chuck Edel and Frank Carulli. >>Standings.
>EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest: There are four undefeated contestants this week. >>Leaderboard.
Quick Hits
College Football: Adam Burke sorts through the early line moves for Week 5. He also has some bets he likes based on his adjusted power ratings.
MLB: Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s MLB menu. Adam and Steve Makinenwill post their contributions later this morning.
Last but not least: Adam posted this tribute to Dave Sharapan, a Las Vegas sports betting personality known on X as Sportsbook Consigliere, who died over the weekend.
