🔥 The edges are real — the chaos is, too

The big picture: Early returns from Steve Makinen’s NCAA Tournament first-round data were strong — but Thursday showed exactly how these March Madness trends play out in real time.

✅ Confirmation

  • No. 5 Wisconsin — loses outright to High Point
  • No. 5 Vanderbilt — fails to cover vs McNeese

👉 Same seed. Same profile. Same result.

  • #5 seeds: historically unreliable ATS
  • Mid-tier favorites = danger zone

❌ Chaos

  • No. 1 Michigan (-31.5) — fails to cover vs Howard (101-80)
  • No. 1 Duke (-28.5) — barely survives Siena (71-65)

👉 Even elite teams aren’t reliably covering big numbers

🐶 Friday setup: it’s happening again

👉 Northern Iowa (+10.5) vs St. John’s

  • #5 seeds: 40.9% ATS
  • Favored by 6+: 34.5% ATS
  • MVC dogs vs power: 63%+ ATS

👉 Same profile that just burned Wisconsin bettors

💪 Selective chalk (not all favorites are equal)

👉 Arizona (-31.5) vs Long Island

  • #1 seeds laying 25+: 59% ATS

👉 Blowouts happen — but you have to pick your spots

🧊 Total to watch

👉 Hofstra–Alabama UNDER 158.5

  • Totals 149+: 70.5% UNDER
  • SEC #4 seeds: 68% UNDER

📊 The takeaway

The system still works — but you have to respect the volatility.

👉 Read the NCAA Tournament First-Round Analytics Report

👉 Download the March Mania Betting Guide

🎯 Friday NCAA Best Bets from VSiN experts

Here’s where the sharpest VSiN voices are betting today:

Coming later: Adam Burke, Tyler Shoemaker and Josh Appelbaum will post this morning. 👉 Go here

Circa College Hoops Challenge: See the first-round plays from the 15 contestants. 👉 Go here

VSiN March Betting Challenge: See the most popular first-round plays from more than 3,000 contestants. 👉 Go here

🏀 Your NCAA Tournament Toolkit

Everything you need before filling out a bracket or placing a bet.

👉 NCAA Tournament Hub (Today’s first-round previews, plus Saturday’s second-round previews)

⚡ Real-time edge

👉 Track market steam with the DonBest Screen

👉 Start a 7-day free trial (use code VSIN10 for 10% off)

Zach Cohen’s NBA Report

Luka Legend

The Lakers were playing their third game in four nights, along with a second leg of a road back-to-back, in Miami on Thursday. They also got into South Beach super late, making a brutal rest spot even worse. That had a lot of sharp bettors flocking to Miami, but it didn’t matter. The Lakers pulled out a 134-126 win as 3-point road underdogs, and Luka Doncic went nuclear with 60 points in 38 minutes.

Los Angeles has won eight games in a row, moving to 45-25 on the season. The Lakers are 2.0 games up on the Timberwolves in the race for the third seed in the Western Conference, and their advanced stats profile since Feb. 28 is crazy. They’re 11-1 in their last 12 games, and they’re No. 1 in the NBA in raw offensive rating and No. 5 in raw defensive rating in that span. They also have me writing “I will not fade the Lakers again” on the chalkboard like Bart Simpson.

Friday night

There’s only six games on the slate, with Hawks-Rockets being the only one that’s on national television (NBA TV).

Zach posts his Best Bets every morning.

👉 Find Zach’s picks on our NBA page.

He also does a fresh episode of the Hardwood Handicappers podcast Monday-Friday.

👉 Watch / Listen

Kentucky Derby Prep Races + Draft

🎧 VSiN At The Track podcast: Mike Somich and Aaron Halterman take turns drafting their favorite Derby contenders.

📊 Early Derby read

Top tier forming: Chief Wallabee, Paladin, Renegade

After that: Wide open, upside-driven field

👉 Key insight:
There may not be a mid-price (8/1 to 15/1) winner profile this year—at least not yet.

💡 Betting takeaway:
With two Derby preps on Saturday, we’re entering the most important 3-week stretch—these final preps will reshape everything.

👉 Watch / Listen

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