We are rolling out our new Opta AI NBA player props projections.
You can find the page here. This is a VSiN Pro benefit, but will be open to all for a limited time.
As with the Opta AI NFL projections, we will compare the NBA projections to the DraftKings prop lines. You can sort by the 11 statistics offered and see where there is the biggest delta between the projection and the line. You also can sort for a specific game or search for a specific player.
We will update the page for the day’s games when we have both the NBA projections and the DK prop lines, so I would expect around mid-day. The projections will continue to update until game time based on injury reports and lineup changes for both teams. The lines will change as well, of course. The projections should get smarter as more data on playing time, rotations and team tendencies is collected. I did notice that Opta AI went 15-4 on the three-pointers made category.
As always, your questions and feedback are welcome.
Your guide to the Association
The NBA opened Tuesday night with a bang — the defending champion Thunder needed two overtimes to defeat the Rockets 125-124, but Houston covered the +7.5 at Circa. In the nightcap, the Warriors (-2.5) beat the LeBron-less Lakers 119-109.
There are 12 games tonight, so let’s go over one more time what to expect from us on daily basis:
>Zach Cohen will produce two stories on the NBA on weekdays — one with his Best Bets and one looking at the Opta AI prop projections for value. And he will do a shorter piece on the weekends.
>Steve Makinen will do a daily NBA Analytics Report, which includes relevant trends, betting systems, schedule advantage scenarios and strength ratings interpretations. The report also has his betting splits systems.
You will find them mid-morning on our NBA page.
Other NBA resources
>Makinen’s daily power ratings
Get the DonBest NBA Rotation Guide (through Dec. 23), ready for download.
More Conference USA action
We’re running out of time to come up with a clever name for these mid-week Conference USA games.
Two more tonight: Middle Tennessee (+9) at Delaware (7:30 ET, ESPN2) and Missouri State (-1) at New Mexico State (9 ET, CBSSN).
Adam Burke, our resident Conference USA expert, offers his opinions on both games.
Steve Makinen‘s new Analytics Report includes a few trends and systems on tonight’s games.
Everything we have on Week 9 will be here, including Tyler Shoemaker’s early Best Bets.
Get the DonBest Pro and College Football Rotation Guide (starting this week and through the postseason), ready for download now.
TNF Best Bet
Tyler Shoemaker has posted his early NFL Best Bets, including one on Thursday’s Vikings (+3) at Chargers game:
I feel like Minnesota has traveled the globe in the last few weeks, and they now take a trip to the West Coast to take on Justin Herbert and the Chargers on a short week. I know the Chargers are just 4-3 compared to Minnesota’s 3-3 record. Still, I was a bit surprised to see this line open under 3.5 due to the fact that TSI projects Chargers -3.7, and my estimated market ratings make the game Chargers -6.6 based on where these teams’ win totals are currently priced. LA is currently eighth in opponent-adjusted net yards per play, while Minnesota is 17th, indicating perhaps some of the losses for LA are less about them getting outplayed down-to-down and more about some key plays here and there deciding the game, so I’m going to lay the 3 with the Bolts.
Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon observed their weekly tradition of sorting through the biggest favorites and settle on the best option in survivor contests. >>Watch the segment.
>Everything we do on NFL Week 8 is posted here.
Coming later this morning: Mike Somich‘s Week 9 plays as he goes in search of closing line value.
Quick Hits
World Series: Adam Burke has gathered his thoughts on the Fall Classic and offers his prediction.
PGA: Wes Reynolds has Best Bets for the Bank of Utah Championship and none of them is shorter than 50-1! Wes also joined Matt Brown and Kelley Bydlon on the Long Shots podcast. >Watch. >Listen.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Horse Racing: VSiN’s “Mr. Ed” Sehon has picks for today’s card at Keeneland.
