Carl Sack, a frequent guest on A Numbers Game with Gill Alexander and proprietor of KillerSports.com, was wondering if I’d be interested in doing a contest for the NBA playoffs like the recent Circa College Hoops Challenge.
Hey, why not?
So Carl has helped organize the VSiN KillerSports NBA Playoff Challenge: 15 invited contestants from the world of VSiN and KillerSports with the winner based on 38 picks between the opening of the playoffs on Saturday and the end of the NBA Finals. First prize is $3,000; second is $500. Go here for a list of the esteemed contestants and format.
What this means for you: 570 picks for the NBA playoffs. The deadline for posting picks is an hour before the first playoff game of the day, so you will need to check this page for the latest picks.
I love hearing how people in the sports betting industry got started. Here is Carl’s story:
I started sports betting with my friends in high school about 33 years ago when we had to look up the spreads in the newspapers. I’ve always been comfortable with math and statistics and loved playing and following sports so sports betting was a way to combine those passions. Once I got to college and learned how to use spreadsheets and databases is when I got more seriously into sports betting. I studied finance in undergrad and grad school with a focus on equity valuation and behavioral economics. It turns out building predictive models in financial analysis and valuing companies in the stock markets have a lot of similarities with valuing teams in the sports betting markets.
I began slowly building my bankroll over the years and once I got into Corporate America as a Financial Analyst after college it gave me more money to invest. I spent most of my free time handicapping and closely tracking my analysis to see where I had the most success. In 2012, I was able to quit my day job and become a full time handicapper and bettor. I began working with Dr. Bob Stoll, from whom I learned a ton. I also was formally consulting with Sports Insights and BetLabs for a number of years.
I had success handicapping other sports, but I found the NBA was where I was most profitable, in part because there are a lot of opportunities to find value in the NBA simply given the large number of games played each season. It became clear to me that successfully beating a market is very time consuming. I decided it was the best use of my time to not stretch myself too thin and to focus mainly on just one sport.
As far as KillerSports goes, it was back around 2005 when I came across their website. They had a database of sports stats and betting information and I began using it. It allowed me to do research that I hadn’t done before. The website was started in 2004 by a couple of PhDs in Physics who had built it in their spare time. They never really did any marketing and you had to learn a custom programming language to really do more complex analysis. In 2021 the brothers were getting near retirement age and wanting to do other things and there were rumors that the website was going to disappear, so I approached them and ultimately bought a majority share of the company. Since then, in my spare time I’ve been forming a team and working to grow the business. We’ve completely rebuilt the website to make it more user friendly and we’ve added some new tools, products, and more data. Within the last 6 months or so, we’ve finally gotten to a place where we’re comfortable starting to spread the word.
Carl will be on Gill’s show today (10 am-noon). And If you want to try KillerSports.com, you can get a 3-day FREE trial with no credit card required, then 40% off your first month when you use Promo Code VSIN40.
No. 8 seeds set tonight
Zach Cohen has Best Bets for tonight’s win-or-go-home NBA Play-In Games:
No. 10 Heat vs. No. 8 Hawks, 7 ET, TNT. >Preview.
No. 10 Mavericks vs. No. 8 Grizzlies, 9:30 ET, ESPN. >Preview.
>VSiN’s NBA Playoff Hub page with Zach’s previews for the six series that are already set for this weekend.
NHL playoff picks
Jonathan Davis filed his NHL playoff overview with some futures bets he likes. It will be posted here this morning, followed by his series previews.
I took a sneak peek at his recommendations and this one caught my eye: Stanley Cup Matchup — Leafs/Vegas: +3500
Mike Somich says there are three series that are mis-priced. Look for his piece later this morning.
Today in MLB
Greg Peterson has filed his top plays for today.
Steve Makinen, Josh Appelbaum and Adam Burke will file their contributions by mid-morning and you can find them on the MLB page.
>Our daily matchup page with more detail by clicking on “Matchup Analysis.”
>Makinen’s daily power ratings
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
Quick Hits
Horse Racing: Keeneland picks from Ed Sehon. Don’t miss VSiN At The Track with Mike Somich and Aaron Halterman today live on our YouTube channel at 2:10 p.m. ET. You can watch live or the replay here.
NFL Draft: Everything you need to know about betting Thursday’s draft is here.
Storytime from Circa
WrestleMania 41 has taken over Las Vegas.
To get into the spirit of the weekend, I decided to check out Ric Flair’s appearance Thursday on the SiriusXM Busted Open show (channel 156) live from the Legacy Club on Circa’s 60th floor.
So I’m riding up the elevator jam-packed with pro wrestling fans and a Circa security guy says, “Bill, you don’t seem like the pro wrestling type.” And I responded, “Come on, I went to WrestleMania 2.”
Whatever I picked up in street cred from the elevator crowd wasn’t worth it. The collective reaction in the elevator: “That’s cool, but how bleeping old are you?” Ouch!
As for Nature Boy, he entertained the raucous crowd, his favorite topic being a word that starts with a “p” — and isn’t pro wrestling.
If you are in town, Circa has a lot of special events happening around WrestleMania.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Friday, April 18. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
