With the second round of the NBA playoffs ramping up, we are expanding our coverage of player props.
Dan Karpuc joins the talented stable of VSiN.com writers. His last stop was at BetQL, where he focused on NBA player props. He’ll post his best bets mid-mornings throughout the rest of the playoffs.
We have two games tonight:
- Game 2: Pacers (+9 at Circa) at Cavaliers, 7 ET, TNT
- Game 1: Warriors. (+6.5) vs. Wolves, 9:30 ET, TNT
Dan filed his VSiN debut early, so let’s see what he has to say for himself.
Before we dive into the plays, it’s important to quickly address NBA injury news. For Cleveland, Darius Garland (toe), Evan Mobley (ankle), and De’Andre Hunter (thumb) are all listed as questionable. That’s a huge deal with the Cavaliers already trailing 0-1 in the series, and any of those absences would significantly alter player prop markets for both teams. The Pacers will again be without Isaiah Jackson (Achilles), who’s out for the season.
Donovan Mitchell Over 27.5 Points (-118, FanDuel)
My first play on the board comes from a spot that screams desperation — and elite volume. I’m backing Donovan Mitchell Over 27.5 Points in Game 2 against the Pacers. Mitchell posted a 33-point effort in Game 1 on 13-of-30 shooting, including an ice-cold 1-of-11 from 3, but it was his 41.5% usage rate that tells the real story. Even on an inefficient shooting night, he still cleared this number with room to spare — and that volume is only going to sustain or increase if Cleveland’s injuries hold.
>>For more of his rationale on this bet and three more wagers, read Dan’s story.
Later this morning: Zach Cohen will post his daily Best Bets —which usually include player props — and Steve Makinen will file his Analytics Report.
>Today’s selections from the VSiN KillerSports NBA Playoff Challenge will be available shortly after 6 p.m. ET.
>Estimated scores from Makinen.
ICYMI: Go to VSiN’s NBA Playoff Hub for second-round series previews.
Monday recap: Hard to say which game was more unbelievable. Trailing since the first quarter, the Nuggets (+10.5) finally overcame the Thunder 121-119 on a Aaron Gordon’s three-pointer with 2.8 seconds left. In the other series opener, the Knicks (+9) rallied from 20 down in the third quarter to beat the Celtics 108-105 in OT. Boston set a dubious league playoff record with 45 missed three-pointers.
2 NHL openers on tap
We have two Game 1s in the NHL tonight:
- Carolina (-124 at Circa) at Washington (+111), 7 ET, ESPN
- Edmonton (+119) at Vegas (-133), 9:30 ET, ESPN
Jonathan Davis will post his official Best Bets later today, but he already has offered his early thoughts on all four series.
Let’s see what JD has to say about my adopted hometown Vegas:
My concern with the Oilers is that I don’t trust their goaltending with Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner. With their best defenseman, Mattias Ekholm, likely still out for this series, it will be too much to overcome. Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy made a big adjustment in the series against Minnesota in Games Five and Six, when he put together a line of Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and William Karlsson. The trio has the skill set not only to provide offense but to shut down the opposition’s best forwards. They will get the task of matching up against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who were practicing together alongside Corey Perry, forming the No. 1 line for Edmonton.
I like Vegas on the series spread at -1.5 games at +196.
>Estimated scores from Makinen.
Monday recap: The Leafs (+105) held off the Panthers 5-4 in their series opener. Injury alert: Toronto goalie Anthony Stolarz left in the second period with a head injury and was taken to the hosptial.
Should you auto-bet against the Rockies?
Adam Burke goes through the ugly stats for the 4-17 Rockies and their upcoming schedule to come up with his answer.
If you are interested in starting today, the Tigers are -175 favorites vs. Colorado (+145). A confident 95 percent of the money is on the Tigers at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Greg Peterson already has filed his top plays for today.
Steve Makinen, Adam Burke and Josh Appelbaum will post their contributions later this morning.
Steve updates his bullpen betting systems.
>Our daily matchup page with more detail by clicking on “Matchup Analysis.”
>Makinen’s daily power ratings
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
Quick Hits
Horse Racing: Bill Mott, trainer of Derby winner Sovereignty, made an appearance on VSiN Live on Mad Dog Radio with Patrick Meagher and Dustin Swedelson and said he expected to make a decision on the Preakness by Wednesday at the latest. >>Watch the segment.
The Industry: Here is one for all you Massachusetts bettors. The state gaming commission voted Monday to require sportsbooks to void bets if Russian or Belarusian athletes promote their countries. As Legal Sports Betting wrote: “In other words, someone betting on the UFC could place a wager, watch the fight play out, and still have their bet canceled retroactively if the athlete raises a flag in the octagon.”
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Tuesday, May 5. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
