Sowing the seeds of victory
Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars had barely finished cutting down the nets to complete the No. 1 seeded sweep of the Final Four when I got the text from Brent Musburger.
How ‘bout those No. 1’s! Honestly, only time in my life, I’ve picked a Final Four correctly. Actually, it was the committee picking for me! This is the year of the chalk!
If you think this means we’ll automatically have competitive games on Saturday in San Antonio with Houston-Duke and Auburn-Florida, VSiN regular guest Chris Fallica offers this note:
In 2008, the only other time when all four one seeds reached the Final Four, neither semifinal was decided by fewer than 15 points. Favored Memphis beat UCLA by 15 and Kansas upset UNC, winning by 18 as a three-point dog.
Before we look ahead, though, let’s wrap up the first 60 games of the tournament with Dave Tuley‘s ATS Report:
Houston (-3 vs. Tennessee) and Auburn (-5 vs. Michigan State) both covered and both games went Under. For the tournament, favorites lead 48-12 SU (80%) and 33-27 ATS (55%); Unders improved to 34-25-1 (57.6%).
Breaking down Final Four matchups
VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke offers his early read on Florida vs. Auburn (6:09 p.m, CBS):
There are a lot of similarities between the Gators and Tigers. Both teams have fairly similar Rim & 3 Rates, as Florida does check in a bit higher at over 82%, while Auburn is around 77%. The two teams are identical in 3P% defense at 29.6% in games against Division I opponents and Florida is a little bit better at defending 2s, but we’re talking about a very small difference of 0.4%. And, while Florida is 0.5% better at shooting 2s, Auburn is 0.4% better at shooting 3s. All of these stats lined up side-by-side per Bart Torvik’s game preview page sure do make it look like it will be a toss-up type of game.
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen gives his early impressions on Duke vs. Houston (8:49 p.m., CBS):
Both of these teams play at extremely slow paces, which is something to keep in mind when thinking about the total. However, it’s also important when looking at how this game might be played. The Cougars are 360th in the nation in adjusted tempo, and the Blue Devils are 271st in that regard. So, given these are also two of the top-five defensive teams in the country, it’s going to be hard for everybody involved in this game to create offense. That alone makes it hard to say Duke is the easy pick to win this one. Adding in the fact that the Cougars are third in the nation in 3PT% (39.7%) and 13th in 3PT% defense (30.1%) only makes Houston look a little better.
Brent’s text with his Final Four analysis didn’t need many words:
Florida -2.5
Duke -4.5
We’ll have plenty more words from now until Saturday on VSiN and VSiN.com.
The Crown arrives in Las Vegas
More specifically, the Crown arrived at Circa last week as you can see from the above photo.
It’s the trophy given to the winner of the inaugural 16-team Crown Basketball Tournament that begins today in Las Vegas.
Adam has all the details of the tournament, including this one that might put the NIT (est. 1938) out of business:
The champion will get $300,000 in NIL earnings, while the runner-up will get $100,000 and the third and fourth-place teams get $50,000 each.
Brent weighed in on this one, too:
This is a tournament for detectives and not mathematicians. I want to know which players are locked down at night and which ones are enjoying the Vegas Sin Bin. Stay tuned!
I’m on the case, Brent! Also, the 30 referees will be staying at Circa this week along with the trophy because Circa is one of the tourney sponsors.
Greg “Hoops” Peterson is always at home doing a podcast, so I guess he is going to rely on his power ratings to come up with picks for today’s four first-round games.
Contest Corner
With three plays left in the Circa College Hoops Challenge, Texas pro handicapper Paul Stone leads hard-charging Jonathan Von Tobel by just two points. Tim Murray went 3-0 in the Elite 8 round and is just a half-point behind JVT. >>Standings. The Final Four round requires two plays, due Friday, from the 15 contestants.
In the VSiN March Bracket Challenge, Dennis M. from Downers Grove, Ill., has sole possession of the lead with 58 points based on a 27-9-1 record (75%). >>Check the standings. Up next: 2 Final Four picks.
VSiN staffers are playing along in the Bracket Challenge if you want to see how that’s going.
Man the torpedoes
In the season-opening series, the Yankees hit 15 homers and outscored the Brewers 36-14 with credit going to a new, torpedo-shaped bat that is being used by five New York players. The rest of the credit went to Aaron Judge, who isn’t using the bat.
I asked Adam Burke, our MLB bigfoot, what he thought of the situation:
I can’t believe it’s taken this long for a team to try to find a competitive advantage by manipulating the bat. To do it how the Yankees did with a player (Anthony Volpe) who doesn’t barrel the ball much is very smart. If it’s within the rules — and MLB says it is — expect more players to adopt them and more teams to use technology, bat tracking, and contact quality analysis to do the same on an individual player level.
I can definitely understand why pitchers are upset after having foreign substances taken away not that long ago, so I don’t think this discussion is over by any means.
Then again, maybe the Brewers pitching sucks. We’ll find out more when the Yankees host the Diamondbacks on Tuesday.
Greg Peterson has filed his top plays for today. >Check his handicapped lines.
Steve Makinen will file his MLB Analytics report by mid-morning and you can find it on the MLB page.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen will have his plays later this morning.
NHL: Jonathan Davis will have his Best Bets later, too.
Congrats to Wes Reynolds, Long Shots podcast co-host Kelley Bydlon and VSiN guest Jeff Sealey for their 35-1 winner Min Woo Lee, who held off Scottie Scheffler in the Houston Open.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Monday, March 31. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
