Programming alert: Starting tonight, Patrick Meagher’s VSiN Live show is moving to 8 p.m. ET (from 7) on Mad Dog Radio Channel 82.
LIke Bill Belichick in reverse, let’s turn our attention from college football to the NFL.
(With better results, I hope.)
If you are looking for NFL teams that might exceed or fall below expectations this season, this Steve Makinen analysis is for you.
It’s all about turnovers:
Since 2009, there have been 43 teams that had a negative turnover differential and won fewer than six games against the spread. All but two of those improved their ATS winning percentage the next season, by an average of 22%. All but seven of these teams improved their outright winning percentage as well, by an average of about 20%, and 13 of them qualified for the playoffs.
Steve also has the numbers on teams that had a positive turnover differential in the prior season.
There were two key injury updates Monday: Rams QB Matthew Stafford (back) is expected to start vs. the Texans. Micah Parsons’ status for the Packers-Lions game is still uncertain because of his back.
We’ll be posting everything we do on Week 1 on this page.
A betting system for CFB Game 2s
Steve Makinen, the aforementioned man with a betting system for every occasion, has what he calls the College Football Game 2 Reactionary Systems.
Here is one of five he has developed over the years for the second game of the season:
FCS Game 2 foes are not an easy rebound: Teams coming off a FBS loss in Game 1 and favored big (>=24 points) over a FCS team in Game 2 have gone just 44-69-2 ATS (38.9%) since 2012, including 2-5-1 ATS last year.
Potential System Matches (FADE ALL after confirming final lines): Boise State, Northwestern, Buffalo, Colorado State, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana-Lafayette.
With TCU’s 48-14 victory over North Carolina closing out Week 1, Zach Cohen takes a look back at what we can learn from it.
Everything we do on Week 2 will be posted here, including Tyler Shoemaker’s predictions.
Quick Hits
MLB: Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s MLB menu.Steve Makinen and Adam Burke will post their daily contributions later this morning. Steve updated his Bullpen Betting Systems.
U.S. Open: VSiN tennis analyst Zach Cohen has three plays for today’s matches. Zach will post additional picks on our tennis picks page if he spots a play or two during the day. Gill Alexander will send me any picks he has for the page late at night.
Contest Corner: As of Monday night, here are the signup numbers for Circa’s football contests — Million 4,358; Survivor 14,028; Grandissimo 43. The sign-up deadline is Saturday at 2 p.m. PT.
Need a proxy for the Las Vegas football contests? Winners Circle Proxy is the official proxy for VSiN.
Want to test your handicapping skills against the likes of Las Vegas pro bettors Steve Fezzik and Chuck Edel? Sign up for the Edge Boost Average Joe Contest, which mirrors the format of the Circa Friday Football Invitational. The top Average Joe will get a spot in next year’s Invitational, plus there are weekly and quarterly prizes. Read the rules, enter the contest — and find out why you should also sign up for a free Edge Boost account.
