Does a team have an advantage playing at home on a short week in the NFL?
Yes — but not until the second half of the season.
From Steve Makinen’s NFL Week 2 Analytics Report:
In the first half of the season (Weeks 1-8), home teams have gone 25-22 straight up on Thursday Night Football, but 15-30-2 against the spread (33.3%) in the last 47 games (since 2018). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 44-27 SU and 42-26-3 ATS (61.8%).
I asked Steve for his theory on why this is so:
My belief is that the fatigue factor isn’t really there yet for all teams so it isn’t as big of a deal to go on the road on short rest. Later in the season, when the routines are more established, being at home on short rest becomes more valuable.
Case in point: The Packers are at home tonight vs. the Commanders (8:15 ET, Amazon) to open Week 2. The line moved to Green Bay -3 on Wednesday, from -3.5 at most books.
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen offers his analysis, plus a prop bet.
Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley jumped on Commanders +4.5 Sunday night at Circa, so he is feeling pretty good about himself. >>Get his Takes on all the Week 2 games.
Josh Appelbaum’s TNF Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
>Commanders-Packers Betting Splits.
Purdy ‘long shot” to play
Injury news: The 49ers-Saints line moved Wednesday to SF -3 from -4.5 after 49ers coach Mike Shanahan said Brock Purdy (toe, left shoulder) was a long shot to play Sunday.
Gill Alexander’s Week 2 Beating The Book megapod is out with regulars Will Hill and Todd Wishnev along with Fox Sports analyst Chris Fallica. >Listen now.
We’ll be posting everything we do on Week 2 on this page.
For VSiN Pro subscribers, the NFL picks page is here.
ACC opener tonight
We have one game on the tonight’s college football Week 3 menu: N.C. State (-7) at Wake Forest (7:30 ET, ESPN).
VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke breaks down the ACC opener and has a play.
Department of corrections: In trying to explain how to use Steve Makinen‘s projections based on his power ratings, I should have said that Memphis and Over are the plays. >>It’s corrected here.
Quick Hits
MLB: Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s MLB menu. Adam Burke and Steve Makinen will post their contributions later this morning.
College Basketball: A Fresno State men’s basketball player manipulated his performance for gambling purposes and conspired with two players to place bets on his statistics, according to findings from an NCAA investigation released Wednesday. All three were banned permanently by the NCAA. >>More from ESPN’s David Purdum.
Horse Racing: The road to the Kentucky Derby begins Saturday. Adam previews the Iroquois Stakes for 2-year-olds at Churchill Downs. 1/ST Bet’s Jeremy Plonk has picks for today’s Delaware Park menu. Horse racing coverage is sponsored by 1/ST BET. Get your $250 sign-up bonus.
