A double-digit division dog?
That’s an auto-bet for VSiN’s Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley:
We have an AFC East rivalry game, though the Bills are head and shoulders above the rest of the division so far as the only team at 2-0 while the Dolphins are in the basement at 0-2. However, I can’t resist the double-digit division dog. The Bills have looked great while the Dolphins looked terrible on both sides of the ball in their 33-8 Week 1 blowout loss at the Colts, but then played much better – especially on offense – before losing 33-27 at home vs. the Patriots. I expect this game to be closer to the Bills-Ravens shootout in Week 1 than the Bills’ 30-10 rout of the Jets in Week 2.
>>Get Dave’s Takes on every Week 3 matchup.
Zach Cohen previews the game (8:15 ET, Amazon) with the line at Bills -12.5 at DraftKings and -11.5 at Circa with a consensus total of 49.5.
What’s crazy is that the Dolphins have looked as bad as they have despite facing Daniel Jones and Drake Maye. That’s one quarterback that has struggled throughout the entirety of his career and another that has played only 14 games. Is it possible they’re both good now? Sure. But this is Josh Allen, the best quarterback in football.
>>Zach has a player prop for your consideration.
Steve Makinen’s Analytics Report has these Thursday Night Football-specific nuggets:
>Home favorites of 7 points or more are on a 31-2 SU and 21-10-2 ATS (67.7%) run on TNF games since the start of the 2014 season.
>There have been 32 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 22-10 rate (68.8%).
Steve’s Week 3 Betting Systems on how to avoid traps include this:
>Winless teams are 23-35-1 SU, but 39-20 ATS (66.1%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010.
Josh Appelbaum’s TNF Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
>Dolphins-Bills Betting Splits.
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to our NFL picks page with plays from hosts and guests.
I couldn’t understand why the Bears were favored against the Cowboys and apparently neither could bettors. On Wednesday, the line flipped from Chicago -1.5 to Dallas -1.5 (DK) or pick’em (Circa).
ICYMI on YouTube: Gill Alexander goes through his thinking on this week’s potential survivor choices.
>>NFL Week 3 Hub with stories and resources.
College Football: Going against the grain
The vaunted American Conference is holding down the Thursday night position for college football tonight.
Adam Burke previews Rice (-1.5) at UNC-Charlotte (7:30 ET, ESPN):
Bettors banged this line early and often on the side of the home underdog. Rice opened as high as -6.5 in the market, but that number was short-lived.
>>Adam has a play on the Total (42.5).
Steve Makinen lays off tonight’s tilt, but posted his Best Bets for the rest of the week.
>CFB Week 4 Hub with stories and resources.
Sports Betting 101 (maybe 201)
Two highly recommended interviews from the last few days:
>Elihu Feustel, author of Beyond The Odds: Efficient Market Theory and Tools of Warfare For The Modern Sports Bettor, explains the math on whether you should buy a half-point when betting on the NFL. >>Watch the segment with Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon on A Numbers Game.
>Frank Betti, a pro bettor and contestant in the Circa Friday Football Invitational, offers his advice on teasers and survivor contests, plus a story on how he once helped his friend win a house. >>Listen to the segment with Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard on Follow The Money.
Quick Hits
MLB: Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s MLB menu. Adam Burke and Steve Makinenwill post their contributions later this morning.
Horse Racing: 1/ST Bet’s Jeremy Plonk has picks for today’s card at the Big A. Horse racing coverage is sponsored by 1/ST BET. Get your $250 sign-up bonus.
