A San Francisco treat unless . . .
“Another insane finish,” Matt Youmans texted me. “Brutal” wrote Gill Alexander.
The underdog and undermanned 49ers upset the Rams 26-23 in overtime in the NFL Week 5 opener on Thursday night. The line climbed to 49ers +9 at Circa before closing at +7.5.
After kicking a field goal that brushed the left upright on the first OT possession, the 49ers clinched it by stuffing an LA run on fourth-and-1 at the San Francisco 11.
Sure, the Rams could have kicked a tying field goal with still 4 minutes left, but a tie wouldn’t have helped the many Circa Survivor contestants who banked on an easy victory against an injury-riddled team. >>Game highlights if you missed the Rams’ fumble on the 1 late in regulation—or just want to second-guess Sean McVay again.
Besides Mitch Moss (see above X post), VSiN hosts who lost entries included Gill, Matt, Pauly Howard and Dustin Swedelson.
With 12,404 left in Circa Survivor, our friends at PoolGenius estimated that about 19 percent of the field would take the Rams. We won’t find out until Saturday when Circa owner Derek Stevens and sportsbook operations chief Jeff Benson announce the picks on The Football Contest Show (9-10 p.m. ET).
The news wasn’t all bad for VSiN hosts. John Hansen went 8-for-8 on his TNF prop picks, his first perfect record as proprietor of Prop Points (1-2 ET):
Davante Adams OVER 4.5 receptions (-121, DraftKings) ✅
Kyren Williams OVER 8.5 receiving yards (-119, DraftKings) ✅
Kendrick Bourne OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) ✅
Jake Tonges OVER 27.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings) ✅
Davante Adams OVER 54.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) ✅
Mac Jones OVER 32.5 passing attempts (-121, DraftKings) ✅
Demarcus Robinson OVER 28.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) ✅
Jake Tonges anytime TD (+400) ✅
Opta AI projections went 20-21 on player props (not a lot of winning Unders to be had).
>NFL Week 5 Hub with stories and resources.
Three NFL podcasts for your listening pleasure:
>Sharp Money with Patrick Meagher and Mike Somich.
>And for something completely different: The Fade Us Sports podcast with poker’s Phil Hellmuth, Mike Matusow, Brandon Cantu and David Woodley.
MLB: On to the next round
Dave Tuley’s MLB Wild-Card Report: Tigers (+115) beat Guardians 6-3 (went Over 7 runs); Cubs (-112) beat Padres 3-1; Yankees (-146 home favorites) shut out Red Sox 4-0. Favorites finish 9-2 in the round; home teams 7-4; Unders 7-3-1.
So MLB divisional series pairings are set for Saturday’s openers (with series odds from DraftKings):
Cubs (+110) vs. Brewers (-130)
Dodgers (-125) vs. Phillies (+105)
Yankees (-145) vs. Blue Jays (+125)
Tigers (+140) vs. Mariners (-165)
Jensen Lewis, host of VSiN By The Books (7-10 a.m. ET), emailed his early thoughts on the Elite 8:
The Yankees become first team to LOSE Game 1 in Wild Card Round AND win the series since the Wild Card format went to best-of-3 in 2022.
Don’t know if people realize how ridiculous the atmosphere is going to be in Seattle and Toronto — those places are absolutely bananas in the postseason.
Last 5 World Series champions finished Top 5 in team HR in the regular season: Qualifiers this year, still alive in playoffs = NYY, LAD, SEA.
Adam Burke is working away on his predictions for the four series. Look for them on our MLB page later today.
Friday night CFB Best Bets
Adam Burke sizes up the five games on tonight’s college football menu and decides to focus his betting lens on New Mexico (+2.5) vs. San Jose State (10 ET, FS1).
My college football power ratings have this game lined at pick ‘em. San Jose State has played the tougher schedule so far by about 60 spots per Jeff Sagarin, but New Mexico is in a better place mentally here and has a lot more offensive balance.
>>Adam’s Best Bet, plus his thoughts on the other games.
Steve Makinen takes his shots at the Western Kentucky (+2.5) at Delaware and Colorado State (+6) at San Diego State games tonight. >>Steve’s Week 6 Best Bets.
Josh Appelbaum’s CFB Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
Thursday steam alerts from DonBest Sports:
Iowa State-Cincinnati Over 55
Miami-Florida State Over 53.5
Air Force-Navy Over 51.5
Illinois-Purdue Under 56
South Alabama +1 vs. Troy
Get these steam alerts and more in real time from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
>CFB Week 6 Hub with stories and resources.
Tim Murray shares his top play (Iowa State-Cincinnati) and so does Matt Youmans (Miami-FSU) on the VSiN College Football Betting Podcast. >Watch. >Listen.
Quick Hits
Horse Racing: “Mr. Ed” Sehon offers his picks for today’s Keeneland card.
Odds are out for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so Mike Somich and Aaron Halterman weigh in with their opinions on the VSiN At The Tracks podcast.
1/ST BET and VSiN have teamed up with an exclusive offer for horse-racing and sports-betting fans. Open and deposit into a new 1/ST BET account and get up to a $250 sign-up bonus with promo code VSIN250. Then, place $100 in wagers within your first 30 days and you’ll unlock a full year of VSiN Pro — a $240 value. Already a VSiN subscriber? We’ll extend your subscription for another year — free. This offer ends Friday, October 5, so don’t wait! Sign up today.
EPL: VSiN soccer analyst Nigel Seeley has his top plays for the weekend Premier League menu.
UFC: Lou Finocchiarro has his plays for Saturday’s UFC 320 card. A new First Strike podcast will be up later today.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis has posted 32 team previews on our NHL page. The season starts Tuesday.
NBA: Also on Tuesday, the VSiN NBA Betting Guide will be published.
