We love LA.
And when I say “we,” I really mean the DraftKings ATS bettors who love the Chargers vs. the Vikings on Thursday (8:15 ET, Amazon) in the NFL Week 8 opener.
Based on our betting splits as of Wednesday night, 82 percent of the handle is on LA. (That may explain why DK went from Chargers -3 to -3.5 late Wednesday.)
As we know from Steve Makinen’s Analytics Report: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the DK handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 71-81 ATS (46.7%).
Conversely, the Vikings are getting 77 percent of the handle at Circa, where the line was 3.
Zach Cohen and Dave Tuley aren’t feeling the Hollywood love story.
Writes Zach: Don’t make the mistake of just assuming L.A. is the same team that started the season 3-0. The Chargers have lost three of their last four games — and the one win was an uninspiring victory over a bad Dolphins squad.
>>Zach has plays on a prop and the Total (44.5).
Dave’s Take: The advance line was Chargers -3 last week before Vikings went toe-to-toe with Eagles, falling 28-22, and the Chargers were run over by the Colts 38-24, so it makes no sense to me that the line has risen to 3.5. Gimme the short-week dog. Carson Wentz is still starting for J.J. McCarthy, but I have no problem with that.
>>Tuley’s Takes on every game..
Aaron Schatz, creator of the advanced metric DVOA, shares his thoughst on the Week 8 menu with Beating The Books host Gill Alexander and regulars Todd Wishnev and Will Hill. >>Listen.
>Everything we do on NFL Week 8 is posted here.
Josh Appelbaum’s TNF Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
More MNF resources
>Vikings-Chargers matchup page
>Opta AI prop projections for the game.
>VSiN Pro subscribers have access to our NFL picks page with plays from hosts and guests.
QB updates: Lamar Jackson (hamstring) was back at practice. Jayden Daniels (hamstring) is expected to miss the MNF matchup vs. the Chiefs.
Sun Belt Total talk
Words I never thought I would write: I am intrigued by tonight’s Sun Belt college football matchup.
Adam Burke previews South Alabama (-6.5, 55 at Circa) at Georgia State (7:30 ET, ESPN2):
The biggest betting story in this game is that we saw the odds screen light up on Tuesday around lunchtime ET with movement on the Over. The timing of the move suggests that a betting syndicate of some kind with a lot of subscribers released a play and the sportsbooks either got wind of it and started moving or the action that came in necessitated an adjustment. Circa actually bumped the total 2.5 points from where they were sitting at 55.5 prior to the incoming action.
Now the Total has settled at 55.5 at Circa and 55 at DraftKings.
But this nugget comes from Steve Makinen’s Best Bets column for the week:
Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 51-25-1 (67.1%) rate since 2015. This particular Sun Belt clash should fit in nicely with that angle, since neither team is very good offensively, while South Alabama has been pretty sound defensively. I’ll take Under 55.5.
Wednesday college football steam alerts from DonBest Sports:
Tulsa +6 vs. Temple
Southern Miss -11 vs. UL-Monroe
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
Everything we have on Week 9 will be here, including Adam’s Best Bets.
Get the VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide
If anyone asks me what’s their best chance for success in sports betting, I tell them to become an expert in a somewhat obscure college basketball conference such as the Horizon League.
VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke echos that advice in the introduction to our 194-page season preview:
It may be a busy time of year, but the start of a new sport brings a lot of good betting opportunities. That is especially true when it comes to college basketball, as the sheer number of teams (365) coupled with the roster turnover and coaching changes make for a very soft, very inefficient market in the early part of the season.
We have previews for all 31 conferences, thanks to our crew of experts. Among the other highlights:
>Matt Youmans’ Preseason Top 50
>Greg “Hoops” Peterson’s Betting Nuggets
>Aaron Moore on player of the year odds
>Zach Cohen on the NCAA Champion futures markets
>Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings and Statistics
You have to be a VSiN Pro subscriber to get the guide, so find the package that works best for you.
FYI: The season starts Nov. 3.
Today in the NBA
Just two NBA games tonight as the Pacers and Nuggets finally open their seasons.
Don’t forget to check out our new Opta AI NBA player props projections. This is a VSiN Pro benefit, but will be open to all for a limited time.
Zach Cohen will have his Best Bets, plus he’ll look for prop projections that interest him. Steve Makinen will post his Analytics Report.
You will find them mid-morning on our NBA page.
Quick Hits
World Series: ICYMI — Adam Burke offers his prediction.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Horse Racing: VSiN’s “Mr. Ed” Sehon and 1/ST BET’s Jeremy Plonk have picks for today’s card at Keeneland.
