There doesn’t seem to be a lot of faith in the hometown team from the hometown bettors as the Raiders travel to Denver for the NFL Week 10 opener tonight (8:15 ET, Amazon).
At least based on the above betting splits from Circa Sports.
That said, Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley makes the case for the Raiders +9:
The advance line for this Thursday nighter was Broncos -10.5 before they pulled out a 18-15 win at the Texans and the Raiders lost 30-29 in OT vs. the Jaguars (but covered as 1.5-point home dogs). The line reopened down slightly at Broncos -10 but has been bet down slowly since. I believe the money is on the right side. The Broncos are 4-0 SU at home (though remember how they lucked out in the Week 7 miracle rally vs. the Giants), but only 2-2 ATS as they also failed to cover as 9-point chalk in Week 1 vs. the Titans.
While the Raiders (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) have been pretty pathetic overall they did play better — at least offensively — vs. the Jaguars. Besides, except for their blowouts of the Bengals and Cowboys, the Broncos (7-2 SU, but a subpar 4-5 ATS) have been more likely to let even bad teams stick around, so we just need another one-score game here.
>>Tuley’s Takes on every game.
To temper that enthusiasm, I offer a few nuggets from Steve Makinen’s NFL Analytics Report:
>In Weeks 1-8, Thursday night home teams are 19-33-2 ATS (36.5%) in the last 54. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 42-27-3 ATS (60.9%).
>Home favorites of 7 points or more are on a 32-3 SU and 21-12-2 ATS (63.6%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
In his betting preview, Zach Cohen summed it up well: Bad teams don’t do good things on short rest.
Steve will file his Best Bets column mid-afternoon.
Josh Appelbaum’s TNF Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
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More TNF resources
>Opta AI prop projections for the game.
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
>VSiN Pro subscribers have access to our NFL picks page with plays from hosts and guests.
QB updates: The Cardinals put Kyler Murray (foot) on the IR, so he will miss another four weeks. The Texans ruled out C.J. Stroud (concussion), so Davis Mills gets the nod.
Everything we have on NFL Week 10 will be posted here.
Get the DonBest Pro and College Football Rotation Guide covering games through the Super Bowl.
Thursday night CFB
Adam Burke previews tonight’s two games:
After two days worth of MACtion, it is refreshing to see better conferences on the card for Thursday. UTSA (+13.5) vs. South Florida from the American and Georgia Southern (+5.5) vs. App State from the Sun Belt are the two games in question, though the level of play will surely be higher in one of those two games.
Makinen has a play on the UTSA-South Florida game in his CFB Best Bets column.
Everything we post on CFB Week 11 will be here.
Today in college basketball
Greg “Hoops” Peterson has 12 Best Bets for today’s college basketball menu. He even makes the Long Island-IU Indy showdown enticing.
Greg also posts daily handicapped lines and handicaps every game every day during the season on the Coast-to-Coast Hoops podcast.
Adam Burke will offer his college basketball Best Bets Monday-Saturday. You can find them on our college basketball page mid-morning.
Other college hoops resources:
>Steve Makinen’s daily power ratings.
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits.
>College Basketball Picks Page.
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Quick Hits
NBA: Look for Best Bets from Zach Cohen and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our new Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Horse Racing: 1/ST BET handicapper Jeremy Plonk has picks for today’s Aqueduct card.
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