There’s no football this weekend, so we want to offer you a little diversion: A one-day basketball contest. Make 8 picks from Saturday’s NBA and college menus. Rank them by your confidence in the play. You can register here now and we’ll open it up for plays tonight when all the lines are posted. First place is worth a $250 Omaha Steaks gift certificate, second $150 and third $100.
Super Bowl chatter
Steve Makinen has put together his Super Bowl Analytics Report.
But with so many trends, betting systems and power ratings — and just two teams — I turned to my good friend Chat GPT to sift through all the data and come up with two plays.
Here they are and why:
🥇 Bet #1: New England +4.5
This is the cleanest, most supported play in your entire data set.
Why it stands out
You’ve got multiple, independent trend families all pointing the same direction:
Macro Super Bowl trends
➡️ Underdogs: 18–6 ATS (75%) last 24 Super Bowls
➡️ #2 seed vs #1 seed: 4–2 ATS
➡️ Underdogs in SEA–NE series: 7–2–1 ATS
➡️ Outright winner usually covers → reinforces taking points in a tight game
Market-based confirmation
➡️ Makinen Power / Effective Strength / Bettors Ratings all flag NE as an underpriced underdog
➡️ DK betting splits system #1: fade heavy public sides → points away from Seattle
Situational & system support
➡️ NE 7–0 ATS revenge angle
➡️ Extreme low-scoring win carryover: 23–11–1 ATS
➡️ Underdogs covering while losing outright fits historical Super Bowl profile perfectly
The key insight
Seattle may be the better team, but Super Bowls overwhelmingly reward:
➡️ The underdog
➡️ The team with margin
➡️ the team that keeps it close even in defeat
📌 Confidence: High
📌 Game script: Seattle wins, but by a FG or less
🥈 Top Bet #2: New England +10.5 (6-Point Teaser)
If you want a lower-variance, historically dominant Super Bowl angle, this is it.
➡️ Underdog 6-pt teasers last 24 Super Bowls: 21–3 (87.5%)
➡️ NE hasn’t lost by more than a TD all season
➡️ Super Bowl point compression + conservative late-game play favors big cushions
This bet sidesteps the Seattle-vs-NE defensive/offensive tug-of-war entirely.
📌 Confidence: Very high
Everything we do on the Super Bowl will be posted here.
The Battle of Michigan
Adam Burke previews tonight’s Michigan-Michigan State game and points out that the Wolverines (-1.5) are on an 0-7 ATS run.
Greg “Hoops” Peterson takes a pass on that Big Ten battle, but shares his Best Bets.
Adam also files his regular college basketball Best Bets Monday–Saturday, available mid-morning on our college basketball page.
Bonus material: VSiN contributor Aaron Moore offers a different approach for NCAA Tournament futures: Playing the “Make The Final Four” option.
Other college hoops resources
>Matchup page
>Makinen’s daily power ratings
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
>College Basketball Picks Page
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
Zach also does a podcast Monday-Friday and I’m sure he will weigh in on the future of Giannis Antetokounmpo on Hardwood Handicappers.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Australian Open: We’re nearing the end, but you can get Zach Cohen‘s daily Best Bets here on our special Aussie Open page. Zach and Gill Alexander add their picks to our tennis picks page.
Horse Racing: We have Gulfstream picks from “Mr. Ed” Sehon and the Daily Racing Form on our horse racing page.
On the VSiN At The Tracks podcast, Mike Somich and Aaron Halterman handicap the best races from Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct, plus share updates from the Kentucky Derby Trail.
UFC: On the First Strike podcast, Dave Ross and Rob Moreno are joined by Reed Kuhn to preview UFC 325, headlined by Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes.
👉 Listen
And you can find picks and predictions from Rob and Lou Finochiarro on our UFC page.
