VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke has put together all the numbers you need to make an informed decision if you want to bet on who scores the first touchdown in the Super Bowl:
Both teams have had tremendous success scoring the first touchdown in recent weeks. And, in the case of the Eagles, they’ve also scored on their first offensive possession in all three playoff games. Philadelphia actually ranks second in First TD% behind the Ravens. The Chiefs are tied for 10th with one fewer game played.
>Charts, analysis and picks from Adam.
>The VSiN Super Bowl Betting Guide is ready for VSiN Pro subscribers. >>Download here.
Everything else we do on the Super Bowl (that isn’t in the guide) will be posted here.
Props for the People, by the People
I can always count on VSiN’s loyal listeners and viewers to come through.
In yesterday’s email, I asked for your favorite Super Bowl prop bets — ideally off-the-beaten-path markets with playable lines along with your rationale for the wager.
Here is one from Jake Parish, an insurance company data analyst from Hoboken, N.J.:
Jahan Dotson (Eagles) OVER 0.5 Receptions
Best lines: -115 at Bet365, -124 at DraftKings
It’s not the most astounding play on the board, but I’m ready to buy low on Jahan Dotson. Even though he has not logged a catch or a target in the past 2 games, he has run a combined 41 total routes and played at least 50% of snaps in each game. These are still fairly consistent with the numbers we saw throughout the regular season, where he recorded a catch in 11 of 17 games (65%) and a target in all but 3 games (82%).
This is expected to be a close game with the Eagles more likely to be in a trailing game script than usual; barring an unexpected line flip, the Eagles will close as an underdog for just the second time in the last 14 games. Jalen Hurts is lined between 26.5 and 27.5 pass attempts, so we anticipate more than the 20.5 attempts he averaged over the first 2 playoff games and closer to the 28 attempts we saw last week against the Commanders. During the regular season, Dotson caught a pass in 5 of 7 games (71%) where Hurts had at least 25 attempts, and recorded a target in all 7 of these games.
With 60 minutes of football, it only takes 1 play to fire up the whole party!
Now that’s what I’m talking about: A little obscure, analysis supported by facts and even links to the cited stats. You can find Jake on X @JakesWakeNTake.
There’s still time to send me your prop bet. If I pick it, you will get a Omaha Steaks Gourmet Certificate valued at over $275.
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NBA Trade Fallout
Well, it didn’t take long for the Mavs to feel the pain of the transition period between the arriving Anthony Davis and the departing Luka Doncic.
About 12 hours after news of the deal broke, the remaining Mavs hit the floor in Cleveland on Sunday. The Cavs, who were favored by 9.5 points pre-trade and 15.5 by tipoff, won 144-101.
The Mavs, presumably with Davis, next play Tuesday in Philadelphia. Doncic, who has been out since Christmas Day when he suffered a calf strain, has expressed hopes to return before the All-Star break. That means he is unlikely to be in the Lakers’ first post-trade game Tuesday vs. the Clippers.
>Look for Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets for today later this morning.
Today in College Hoops
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
Adam Burke will post his top plays later this morning.
Josh Appelbaum will file his Sharp Report on today’s games.
>Makinen’s power ratings with estimated scores
Listen now: Greg’s daily podcast handicapping every game on the menu every day.
Quick Hits
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks later today.
Tennis: This week, the top ATP players in the world are competing in Rotterdam and Dallas, and the best WTA players are playing in Abu Dhabi and Cluj-Napoca. Zach Cohen has some picks and tournament futures. Check the tennis picks page for more from Zach and Gill Alexander.
Golf: You can’t win them all. Wes Reynolds‘ three-week winning long-shot streak on the PGA Tour was ended by Rory McIlroy (11-1), who won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Monday, February 3. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
