How bout some Super Bowl betting trivia? VSiN’s Dan Strauss designed this clever test for you.
The spreadsheet knows
I hope many of you have already started digging into the VSiN Super Bowl Betting Guide.
(Quick housekeeping: It’s free for Pro subscribers here; non-subscribers can unlock it here.)
I finally wrapped up the 25-page PDF packed with betting advice, predictions, and Best Bets from our hosts and writers—and it’s one of my favorite editions we’ve ever put together.
One section that was a welcome surprise: Matt Devine’s annual list of “exceptional” Super Bowl props.
Matt initially told me he’d lost the spreadsheet he uses to chart prop results across the last 24 Super Bowls and wasn’t sure he’d be able to do the piece this year. Thankfully, the spreadsheet resurfaced.
Matt has been designing our betting guides since the beginning, but once a year he puts on his analyst cap—and the results speak for themselves.
Over the past seven Super Bowls, his prop selections are 64–38 (62.7%), good for +9.55 units.
This year, he has identified 12 props that qualify as “exceptional,” which he defines as bets where the odds are materially out of line with the true probability based on historical outcomes.
Here’s his biggest play (8 units): Will both teams attempt a 2-point conversion?
Matt’s answer: No.
It’s happened just once in the last 24 Super Bowls. That’s 23 “No” results—95.8% of the time—which translates to implied odds of roughly -2298.
He’s betting it at Circa at -800.
And that’s just one of 12 props like it in the guide.
For bonus Big Game content, check out our Super Bowl Hub.
NBA deadline sparks hope for winners & losers
We’re still a day from the trading deadline, but the activity is keeping NBA bigfoot Zach Cohen busy.
While Giannis Antetokounmpo rumors continue to swirl, one big deal was completed: The Clippers traded James Harden to the Cavs for Darius Garland and a second-round pick.
Zach offers his thoughts on the betting impact of this deal and others, but I had a simple inquiry: What’s with all the trade activity? Is it because the 2026 draft is so strong?
It has been a little different for all of the teams. The Bulls and Grizzlies just seem to be giving up and looking to the draft. The Jazz have had a huge breakout year out of Keyonte George, so they seem to just think they’re a piece away from being something. I kind of agree and I love Jaren Jackson Jr. for Utah. Then teams looking to free up flexibility to pursue Giannis. Minnesota dumped Conley to Chicago to get under the first apron, so they can now take back Giannis’ contract in a trade.
The draft is loaded, though. The top three guys are all viewed as franchise changers. The rest of the top 10 is pretty good, too.
Zach’s Best Bets and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. And don’t miss Zach’s takes on the Hardwood Handicappers podcast.
Quick Hits
PGA: Wes Reynolds has Best Bets for the boisterous Phoenix Open and joins Matt Brown and Kelley Bydlon on the Long Shots podcast.
College Basketball:Greg “Hoops” Peterson has picks for today’s menu. Adam Burke offers his Best Bets Monday–Saturday, available mid-morning on our college basketball page. You’ll also find Tyler Shoemaker’s picks, based on his men’s and women’s power ratings, Monday–Thursday.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Horse Racing: We have Aqueduct picks from the Daily Racing Form’s Mike Beer.
