Las Vegas professional bettor Steve Fezzik wants to clear something up before Super Bowl Sunday.
He’s not anti-fun.
He is, however, anti-losing when it comes to the plethora of prop bets, especially the ones with no edge for bettors.
That’s my takeaway from his recent segment with Gill Alexander on A Numbers Game.
Steve zeroed in on what really separates winning and losing bettors on the biggest betting day of the year.
The Super Bowl is the one game where novelty takes over. Exact scores. MVPs. First and last touchdowns. Bets that are fun to talk about and easy to sell — and, as Steve points out, loaded with extra vig. He calls them “needle-in-the-haystack” props, and it’s one reason sportsbooks almost never lose on the Big Game.
That doesn’t mean every prop is bad. It does mean you have to know where the edge actually lives.
Fezzik used the coin toss as a good example. The annual heads-or-tails debate is mostly noise. The real question — when it matters — is who gets the ball, and whether books are slow to adjust or pull related markets (e.g., first-half team totals) once that information becomes known. That’s an edge discussion. It just doesn’t fit neatly into most Super Bowl chatter.
He also pushed back on something I hear every year: Bettors building a confident game script and then forcing every prop to line up with it. If your projected final score is meaningfully different from the market, Fezzik argues, that’s probably not insight — it’s overconfidence. The market is usually closer than we want to admit.
Even when it comes to in-game betting, Fezzik’s approach is more deliberate than reactive. Rather than chasing at halftime, he’ll target second-half bets before the game kicks off, when pricing is cleaner and less influenced by early noise. (He mentions a specific play in the video.)
Finally, if you’re betting strictly for entertainment, Steve’s advice is simple: Scale the bet size accordingly.
I hope VSiN can help you this week have a fun and profitable Super Bowl.
The VSiN Super Bowl Betting Guide will be published Tuesday. This downloadable PDF is packed with strategies, picks, and predictions from our entire roster of experts. The guide is an exclusive benefit for VSiN Pro subscribers. If you haven’t joined yet, find the plan that works for you here.
For everything else, hit up our Super Bowl Hub.
‘High Steaks’ contest winner
Congrats to Jerrod Conte of Orlando, Fla., for winning VSiN’s one-day basketball handicapping contest.
Jerrod was the only contestant out of almost 900 to go a perfect 8-0 for the maximum 36 points on Saturday. He will get a $250 Omaha Steaks gift certificate. Ryan McCullough finished second ($150) and Mark Opat third ($100).
I asked Jerrod, who described himself as a “VSiN lifer,” for the secret to his success:
I would say that I read a lot of good NCAAB content from Hoops Peterson and listened to some good info from Matt Youmans on NCAAB to prepare my picks. I pretty much have VSiN on my TV or radio all day — my favorite shows are A Numbers Game and Follow the Money.
Since he has a hot hand, I asked him for his Super Bowl pick:
I got +5.5 with the Pats when the Hard Rock first posted the number, as well as over 45. My wife’s family is from Boston, so I’ll be pulling for the Pats.
The one-day contest was a bit of an experiment to see how it went. I would hope to offer more, based on the response.
Quick Hits
College Basketball:Greg “Hoops” Peterson has picks for today’s menu. Adam Burke offers his Best Bets Monday–Saturday, available mid-morning on our college basketball page. You’ll also find Tyler Shoemaker’s picks, based on his men’s and women’s power ratings, Monday–Thursday.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Horse Racing: We have Turf Paradise picks from the Daily Racing Form’s Scott Ehlers.
