As I start to write this, it is 70 degrees and sunny in Las Vegas.
Back in my hometown of Chicago, it is 22 and snowing enough to ground planes at O’Hare.
Which brings us to the Rams-Bears game on Sunday.
The forecast for game time, according to sports betting meteorologist Kevin Roth, is temperatures in the teens with winds in the 10-15 mph range and the possibility of snow. (By now, everyone who is reading this should know that wind is more important than the temperature.)
Much has been made about the effect of the weather on this game. The Total already has dropped from the opening 51.5 at DraftKings to 48.5. It’s 49 at Circa. Plus there is the fact that the Rams play in the comfy confines of SoFi Stadium.
Clevta, a regular guest on A Numbers Game with Gill Alexander, posted this telling chart of the coldest playoff games since 2000.
My takeaways from the 17 games listed:
➡️ The Over went 10-6-1 with an average of +5.4 points over the Total
➡️ For games with winds of 12 mph or more, the Under went 4-2-1
➡️ The home team went 9-8 SU
While we are on the Rams-Bears game, Steve Makinen has this nugget:
There have only been five road favorites in the last 29 years of the divisional playoffs, and San Francisco was the first to win in that scenario in 2014, beating Carolina 23-10. The other four lost outright and ATS, including Baltimore last season at Buffalo. The Rams are 3.5-point favorites at Chicago and almost assuredly will end as road chalk.
👉 More divisional trends from Steve.
Everything we do on the divisional games will be here.
FYI: FanDuel has posted hypothetical (but bettable) conference lines.
CFP Best Bets
The CFP championship seems a lifetime away, but VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke weighs in with his handicap of Monday’s Miami-Indiana game:
In my mind, Miami has taken three teams’ best shots. Indiana beat an Alabama team that didn’t belong in the playoff and an Oregon team that, frankly, felt overrated all season long. That’s not meant to dismiss what the Hoosiers have done and if those two things are true, they more than handled their business with two blowout wins against two teams they should have pummeled.
👉 Adam’s analysis and Best Bet.
The aforementioned Ducks did get a boost Wednesday with the news that QB Dante Moore will return instead of entering the NFL Draft. This resulted in Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza jumping to -8000 (from -1000 at DraftKings) to be the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
College Basketball: Greg “Hoops” Peterson has picks for today’s college basketball menu. Greg also posts daily handicapped lines and handicaps every game every day during the season on the Coast-to-Coast Hoops podcast.
Adam Burke offers his college basketball Best Bets Monday-Saturday. You can find them on our college basketball page mid-morning. Also look for Tyler Shoemaker‘s picks based on his ratings Monday-Thursday.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Golf: The season-opening Sony Open tees off at noon ET today. So there is still time to read VSiN golf analyst Wes Reynolds’ story and listen to the Long Shots podcast with Wes, Matt Brown and Kelley Bydlon. Or watch it on YouTube.
Horse Racing: Check out our horse racing page for picks from the Daily Racing Form.
