We’ve officially hit the most exploitable stretch of the college basketball regular season.
So writes Steve Makinen.
The final two weeks of Power 5 conference action have historically produced some of the cleanest betting signals on the board. Not narratives. Not “must-win” noise. Actual market edges.
Start with home court.
Over the last eight seasons, home teams in Power 5 games during the final two weeks are 743-427 SU and 618-530 ATS (53.8%). Last season alone? 54.2% ATS.
Real-life examples: In the two big games Monday night, both home teams scored upsets. North Carolina (+3.5) beat Louisville 77-74 and Kansas (+2.5) defeated Houston 69-56.
Totals have followed a similar pattern. These games have gone Over at a 54.3% clip over eight years — and a sharper 57.4% over the last four. Late-season urgency tends to mean tempo, fouling extensions, and more offensive emphasis. The market has adjusted, but not fully.
The key is to understand how books shade these late-season lines. Teams “playing for something” often get taxed. Teams perceived to be fading can become value — but only if they’ve historically shown they can handle this stretch.
Programs like UConn, North Carolina, BYU, Michigan State and Oregon have repeatedly delivered. Others — Minnesota, Georgetown, Wake Forest, Louisville on the road — have not.
👉 Read Steve’s complete analysis.
Greg “Hoops” Peterson has his picks for today’s games.
Adam Burke breaks down two games: Miami (-1.5) at Florida State and New Mexico (+1.5) at Nevada.
Look for Best Bets from Adam later this morning on our college basketball page. You’ll also find picks from Tyler Shoemaker and Josh Appelbaum.
Other college hoops resources
>Matchup page
>Makinen’s daily power ratings
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
>College Basketball Picks Page
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Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page.
NHL: Jonathan Davis has this nugget in his post-Olympics futures story: The NHL season resumes on Wednesday with 28 of the 32 teams in action. Last season, coming out of the 4 Nations Face-Off, 10 of the 14 games on the first day back had a combined six goals or more, and eight of those games had a combined seven or more goals.
Horse Racing: DRF’s Scott Ehlers has picks for today’s Turf Paradise card.
