Opta AI projects big night for Seahawks QB & WR
Are Seahawks QB Sam Darnell and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba going to have big games tonight vs. the Cardinals?
Our new Opta AI NFL player prop projections suggest the answer is yes to both.
As of late Wednesday night, Darnell is projected to have 308 yards passing, 80 more than his prop number at DraftKings Sportsbook. No QB for Week 4 has a bigger difference between actual line and projection.
Smith-Njigba is projected to have 124 yards receiving, 39 more than his prop number. He has the biggest difference for WRs.
Go here to see all the player prop projections for QBs, RBs and WRs for the Seahawks-Cardinals matchup (8:15 ET, Amazon).
I talked with the Opta AI crew on Wednesday, so I will share some of my notes:
>The projections will change throughout the week. In fact, they updated between the time I started and finished this email. Of course, the lines will move, too.
>The AI modeling should improve as the season progresses based on fresh inputs such as playing time (snaps, targets, etc.) and team trends (run vs. pass).
>Projections will adjust based on injuries to the player’s team or the opponent.
For example, the Cardinals have injuries in the defensive backfield, including rookie cornerback Will Johnson, which should boost the Seahawks’ passing game.
If you want more detail on WR/CB matchups, you can see here on our other newest tool that Fantasy Points has Smith-Njigba vs. Cardinals backup Kei’Trel Clark as the biggest mismatch of Week 4.
We also have our NFL Prop Analyzer, which documents historical trends.
So who’s going to cover tonight?
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen previews the game and points out that Steve Makinen’s effective strength ratings give the Seahawks a 5.1-point edge.
Of course, Zach also points out that the lopsided wagering on Seattle, currently a 1- or 1.5-point road favorite, suggests you should fade the Seahawks based on Steve’s betting splits systems.
>Second and third opinions from Dave Tuley and Tyler Shoemaker.
Josh Appelbaum’s TNF Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
More MNF resources
>Seahawks-Cardinals matchup page.
>VSiN Pro subscribers have access to our NFL picks page with plays from hosts and guests.
>NFL Week 4 Hub with stories and resources.
MLB playoff race
I called upon VSiN.com managing editor Adam Burke to sum up the MLB action as we head toward the final regular-season weekend:
The Blue Jays and Yankees are now tied atop the AL East, though Toronto won the season series (8-5), so they have the all-important tiebreaker. Because the Wild Card Round has been extended to three games and starts on the Tuesday after the regular season, there is no “Game 163” anymore as a tiebreaker. Head-to-head is the tiebreaker and since teams play 13 games against division opponents, that will never be a tie.
Speaking of season tiebreakers, the Guardians have it over the Tigers, so their lead is effectively two games now in the AL Central with one more head-to-head matchup tonight between TBD and Parker Messick. My guess is Troy Melton starts with Casey Mize not on regular rest and maybe Keider Montero bulks. Detroit does have the season series tiebreaker over Houston in the AL Wild Card race. Houston’s only route to the playoffs is the Wild Card, as the Mariners won the AL West.
The Reds suffered a huge setback, as they lost in devastating fashion 4-3. They tied the score in the bottom of the 9th and 10th, but couldn’t find the tying run in the 11th. For their sake, the Mets got pummeled by the Cubs, who kept a 2.5-game lead on the Padres for home-field advantage in their Wild Card Round matchup. The Dodgers blew another late lead, but beat Arizona 5-4 in 11 to reduce their magic number to 1.
>>More from Adam later this morning.
Greg Peterson has five plays for today’s menu. Steve Makinen will post his Analytics Report this morning.
CFB Week 5 opener
Adam Burke weighs in on Army (+4) at East Carolina tonight (7:30 ET, ESPN):
On the surface, it may feel like an underwhelming start to a week that includes Oregon vs. Penn State, Alabama vs. Georgia, and LSU vs. Ole Miss, but it is quite an interesting game stylistically.
I will let Adam tell you why and what his play is
Steve Makinen lays off tonight’s game, but posted his Best Bets for the rest of the week.
Wednesday steam alerts from DonBest Sports:
- San Diego State-Northern Illinois Under 42.5
- UConn-Buffalo Under 50
- Arkansas State-UL Monroe Under 54
- UCLA-Northwestern Over 44.5
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
>CFB Week 5 Hub with stories and resources.
A new VSiN College Football Betting Podcast episode: Tim Murray has a new Heisman bet, plus collects plays from Wes Reynolds and Brett Ciancia from PickSix Previews. >Watch. >Listen.
Quick Hits
Ryder Cup: Still a day away, but here is Wes Reynolds‘ Best Bets column in case you missed it. Plus Wes, Matt Brown and Kelley Bydlon on Long Shots, VSiN’s golf betting podcast. >Watch. >Listen.
Horse Racing: 1/ST Bet’s Jeremy Plonk has picks for today’s Churchill Downs card. Horse racing coverage is sponsored by 1/ST BET. Get your $250 sign-up bonus.
