Tempo trap in first month of college basketball
We’re one month into the college basketball season with conferences such as the Big Ten starting league play this week.
VSiN’s Steve Makinen analyzed the data so you don’t have to:
Unless you’re just starting to get into the 2025-26 season, surely you have noticed that the scores have climbed up dramatically in the first month. In fact, total point production is up about 6.0 points over the full 2024-25 season and about 4.8 PPG more than the first month of last season.
But why?
With Points per Possession only slightly up (1.108 to 1.113), the cause for the increase is pace. At the conclusion of last season, teams were averaging 65.1 possessions per game. This year, that number has climbed to 67.6. Historically, conference play sees scoring drop by about 1.5 total points per game, so we’ll see if 2025-26 follows suit.
Steve also breaks down how the increased scoring has affected the betting markets:
After a slew of early Overs, oddsmakers adjusted quickly, and in fact, perhaps over-adjusted. Of the 1,245 board games through Sunday, we have seen 641 Unders and 604 Overs. This past Sunday, 28 games resulted in 20 Unders and 8 Overs, so the tide is definitely changing.
Steve also reveals which teams have jumped the most in his power ratings in the first month:
1. Miami (ACC): +14.5
2. N.C. State (ACC): +14.5
3. New Orleans (Southland): +13
4. Tulsa (American Athletic): +13
5. Michigan (Big Ten): +11.5
👉 More insights (e.g., best and worst ATS teams) from Steve.
Greg Peterson has Best Bets — including two on Big Ten games — for today’s menu.
Adam Burke will offer his top plays Monday-Saturday. You can find them on our college basketball page mid-morning.
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MNF mop-up
So much for the point spread being the great equailizer.
The Patriots improved their NFL-leading record to 11-2 with a 33-15 MNF victory over the Giants, who were never in danger of covering the closing +7. The game went Over 46.5.
Tuley’s ATS report: Favorites led 9-7 SU in Week 13, but dogs led 10-6 ATS. Unders went 9-7.
Everything we do on NFL Week 14 will be posted here.
Contest Corner: 45 entries will head to Week 14 in Circa Survivor. . . In the Circa Friday Football Invitational, Connecticut pro bettor Jason Jarvis and Fox Sports analyst Chris Fallica are tied atop the standings. . . . In the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest, there were 17 contestants with perfect records this week, but P. Purdy took the $500 in an EdgeBoost account by winning the tiebreaker.
Early take on Big Ten title
Tyler Shoemaker‘s Ohio State-Indiana projection caught my eye.
His T-Shoe index indicates the Hoosiers should be a 1.5-point favorite. But . . .
The math says to play Indiana +5.5 here, and the market has bought the Hoosiers as well, but I’m not as sold on that play.
Tim Murray, proprietor of the VSiN College Football Betting Podcast, put together this chart for rematches in the title games, comparing the odds.
Everything we do on Championship Weekend will be posted here.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets column and Steve Makinen‘s Analytics Report will hit around mid-morning on our NBA page. Our Opta AI NBA player props projections are here.
New on VSiN.com: Follow the live in-game odds from FanDuel.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
Horse Racing: Out-handicap VSiN’s Mike Somich to win your share of a $5,000 Grand Prize from 1/ST BET. Enter selections in five select stakes races on Saturday. If you end the day with a bigger bankroll than Mike, you’ll take your share of the prize money. Details and signup available Thursday.
