VSiN’s Stormy Buonantony, a UFL sideline reporter for ESPN, offers her takes on the weekend menu
Remember the line from Home Alone?: “Buzz! Your girlfriend… Woof!”
Well “WOOF” is exactly how I felt about my picks last week going 0-3, falling to 7-7-1 overall through four weeks.
But as the legendary Big Sean also once said: “Last night took an ‘L’ but tonight I bounce back.”
Case Cookus’ injury unfortunately “cooked” my bet vs STL making the Battlehawks the lone favorite to cover last week. It was also the only Over to hit in WK4.
Overall through four weeks, favorites have covered in just 7 of 16 games (43.8%) and the under has hit in 9 of 16 (56.3%).
Also be on the lookout, this is the first week some books are offering props in the UFL. There’s one I LOVE in today’s write up, so let’s get into it!
Stallions (-7.5) at Roughnecks
Saturday, 7 PM ET on FOX
Stallions: -395 // 4-0 SU // 3-1 ATS // O/U 1-3
Roughnecks: +310 // 1-3 SU // 2-2 ATS // O/U 2-2
Total: 42.5 (OV -110, UN -110)
You’re in luck — Because of the Stallions lackluster performance last week, they’re still available +140 to win a 3rd straight spring football championship. This number in my opinion is only going to shrink as the season goes on. That paired with Houston beating Arlington straight up last week is also giving us a slightly lighter spread in Week 5 than we would’ve had otherwise so it’s time to pounce!
The Stallions are the lone undefeated team in the UFL at 4-0 this season, 3-1 ATS. They’ve won 11-straight dating back to last season and I think they win (potentially by double digits) and cover again this week.
A big reason for my confidence level? Adrian Martinez is back under center as the Stallions QB1. Based on the last couple weeks, it looks like Skip Holtz is moving away from the 2QB system in-game & instead giving both Martinez and Matt Corral their own respective games in rotation.
Birmingham had to work for a win last week against DC with Corral starting, but still finished the job with a W complements of a 46-yd FG (shout out UFL kickers btw who continue to deliver this season). While Corral did make some big plays, I think if Martinez was the guy Birmingham would’ve won at margin to cover the big number.
Holtz has heard all the arguments about why he shouldn’t play 2 QBs but he doesn’t care & is sticking to his guns getting both players game tape for the next level.
In Martinez’s last time out against Memphis, he posted nearly 400 yds of total offense and 3TDs. He’s also the 2nd leading rusher in the league right now despite playing just 2.5 games.
Even with both QBs in the rotation, Birmingham has had one of the top offenses in the league (369.8 total yds per game, 25 PPG). They also boast the top defensive unit, ranking #1 in Pts Allowed Per Game, Total Yds Allowed, Rush Yds Allowed, Sacks… need I go on?
You’ll notice I’m not writing much about the Roughnecks side of the equation and it’s because I don’t believe in them. Yes they beat the Renegades to my dismay last week, but it was Arlington’s worst performance of the season by far (and Arlington has how many wins again? Oh right. Zero.)
This is one of my longest write ups because it’s in contention for my favorite play of the weekend. The only thing I might like more is using the Stallions as a teaser leg.
PICK: BIRM -7.5
Brahmas (-2.5) at Renegades
Saturday, 7 PM ET on FOX
Brahmas -135 // 3-1 SU // 2-2 ATS // O/U 1-3
Renegades +114 // 0-4 SU // 1-3 ATS // O/U 2-2
Total: 42.5 (OV -110, UN -110)
I went back and forth on this game for a while before saying to myself, “All the Renegades do is let me down.” The defending XFL champs are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS despite closing as favorites each of the last two weeks. They crushed my ML play vs DC two weeks ago despite taking a 10-point lead with 2 minutes to play. Then when I doubled down in my faith that they’re better than that collapse, they rewarded me by playing their worst game of the season in a 17-9 loss to Houston (who I largely consider the worst team in the league).
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…
Meanwhile the Brahmas, who I’ve firmly felt were a fugazi 3-1, outlasted Michigan 19-9 in Week 4 with Quinton Dormady starting in place of the injured Chase Garbers. Their defense got after the QB collecting 6 sacks against the Panthers, and are coming into this game with some attitude according to offensive coordinator AJ Smith.
Smith was the OC for the Houston Roughnecks last season (SA is basically a revamped version HOU having brought over many of the coaches and players from that team after the merger). The Roughnecks lost to Arlington in the 2023 playoffs and let’s just say Smith and company weren’t particularly pleased with how things shook out.
Smith this week told reporters, “I can’t wait to play Arlington. I’ve had this game circled since they released the schedule. I could care less they’re 0-4, this is still my Super Bowl because of the crap they pulled in the playoffs last year. The fact that we have the opportunity to make them go 0-5 makes it even sweeter. I’ve played this Defensive Coordinator (Jay Hayes) five times going back to 2020. Nothing that they do worries me. We’re going after (LB) Donald Payne, and we can’t wait.”
Arlington might be desperate for a win and perhaps you could call Smith’s statement “bulletin board material,” but I’m siding with the confident/angry Brahmas who are rolling and motivated for revenge.
PICK: SA ML -135
Battlehawks (-3) at Defenders
Sunday, Noon ET on ESPN
Battlehawks -170 // 3-1 SU // 2-2 ATS // O/U 3-1
Defenders +145 // 2-2 SU // 2-2 ATS // O/U 2-2
Total: 47 (OV -110, UN -110)
I’ll be on the sideline for this game Sunday afternoon on ESPN and I’m pumped. While yes, St. Louis may have the loudest fan base in the league with 40,000 strong in the Dome, DC will pile plenty of fans into Audi Field this week and the Beer Snake will be flowing in Section 137 (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, please get on YouTube ASAP).
This is a huge game for DC in the XFL Conference standings. The Defenders did sweep the Battlehawks last year (handing STL 2 of their 3 losses all season), but even with a clear home field advantage, it’s obvious they’re a very different team in 2024.
Many will look to how close DC played Birmingham last week and say STL should be on upset watch, but I can’t get on board even with the Battlehawks dealing with injuries.
STL will be without RB Mateao Durant and WR Darrius Shepard and while on the surface those seem like they could be big losses, Jacob Saylors has carried the load offensively back-to-back weeks on the ground and the Battlehawks have an embarrassment of riches in the receiver room with Marcell Ateman, Hakeem Butler and Jahcour Pearson. Pearson, after getting activated from IR last week, put up 70 yds and scored a late TD his first game back.
They also get back star pass rusher Pita Taumoepenu who missed last week with an ankle injury.
DC’s aggressive style defensively can be hit and miss, but it’s been more miss than hit overall. They are B3 in the league defensively in rush yds allowed per game and tied for allowing the most pass yds per game.
For as much as I love Defenders QB Jordan Ta’Amu, he hasn’t had the same pop as he did when he won the league’s Offensive POY honor last season and the Battlehawks defense is allowing the fewest pass yds per game in the league. They’re also one of the best at eliminating the big play.
I lean STL -3 and may end up on it, but I think the better bet Sunday might come in the prop market.
Give me Jacob Saylors Over 40.5 rush yds (-115). He’s gone over this number by margin each of the last two games, after being inactive WK2. Mateao Durant is out for the season w/ injury and Wayne Gallman, who was the WK1 lead back, has only two rush attempts in each of his last two games. Saylors logged 57 yds on one play last week so it feels obvious this will be his game again.
PICK: Jacob Saylors OVER 40.5 rush yds
LEAN: STL -3
Panthers (-1) at Showboats
Sunday, 3 PM ET on FOX
Panthers -102 // 2-2 SU // 2-2 ATS // O/U 1-3
Showboats -118 // 1-3 SU // 2-2 ATS // O/U 2-2
Total: 40.5 (OV -110, UN -110)
Michigan QB EJ Perry went down with a hamstring injury in the Panthers 19-9 loss to SA last week & after further examination Perry’s been shut down and placed on IR.
In steps Danny Etling for the time being, who played in Perry’s absence last week going 11-for-14 with 105 yds, 1TD and 1INT in the 2H. (Side Note: The Panthers did also sign dual threat QB Bryce Perkins who –and I’m purely speculating– may end up starting after this week once he’s up to speed on the playbook.)
Memphis meanwhile has lost 3-straight, most recently falling 32-17 in St. Louis.
QB Case Cookus was dinged up in the 3Q of the loss, complements of some rough OL play. He’s been sacked 13Xs this year, most in the league this season and I haven’t seen yet whether or not he’ll be available Sunday.
I genuinely have no opinion on the side in this game, but lean under 40.5. Neither offense is anything to write home about & both starting QBs are injured.
Memphis is AVG 3.8 yds per play this season and haven’t hit 20 points in a single game yet. Michigan is only allowing 17.3 PPG.
The Panthers offensively put up just 9 points vs SA and are AVG 18.5 PPG themselves. Even that is slightly skewed thanks to a 34-point breakout game against Houston (who again, I feel is the worst team in the UFL).
PICK: UNDER 40.5
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