UFL Best Bets
Thank you for following my UFL coverage this season! Here are my UFL best bets for Week 8!
Memphis Showboats vs. Michigan Panthers
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET on FOX
- Showboats   +8.5   +320     1-6 SU // 2-5 ATS // O/U 5-2
- Panthers         -8.5   -475      5-2 SU // 4-3 ATS // O/U 3-4
- Total: 47.5 (OV -115, UN -115)
Michigan is 5-2, on a three-game win streak that began with a 35-18 win in Memphis. It just secured a playoff spot after beating DC in WK7.
With QB Danny Etling recovering from an injury to his non-throwing hand, it looks like he’ll be out again. Brian Lewerke is listed as the starter this week, but expect a combination of him and Bryce Perkins again, although they didn’t need to do much, thanks to a dominant run game.
RB Matthew Colburn turned on the burners for 137 yards on the ground, including a play that, despite looking dead before the first-down marker on second-and-5, ended up going for 53 yards. He had 68 yards and a TD in their previous meeting in Memphis as well.
Fellow RB Wes Hills only had 37 yards, but he was the better back in their previous meeting with the Showboats, rushing for 83 yards and three TDs.
Memphis has the second-worst run defense in the league in terms of yards allowed per game, and they’ve allowed more rushing TDs than any other team, so I’d give the rushing props some consideration.
- Colburn O/U 47.5 // TD -130, NO TD -110
- Hills O/U 26.5 // TD -180, NO TD +130
The Showboats have struggled regardless of who’s been under center, but it looks to be Case Cookus back as QB1 this week. The Showboats put up the fewest total yards on a per game basis in the league and are bottom three in scoring.
After back-to-back covers to start the season, Memphis has failed to cover a spread in five straight games, losing games SU by an average of 18.6 PPG, and allowing opponents to score an average of 37.2 PPG. That’s also a big reason Memphis has seen their game go over the total in five consecutive games despite their scoring struggles.
I’ll likely end up on the Panthers for a UFL best bet, but I like a same-game teaser angle bringing down the spread and going over 42.5. It’s the UFL, so it’s OK to get weird.
UFL Best Bet: Same Game 5-PT Teaser Michigan Panthers -3.5, Over 42.5
Lean:Â Michigan Panthers -8.5
Houston Roughnecks at Birmingham Stallions
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+
- Roughnecks   +16    +900     1-6 SU // 2-4-1 ATS // O/U 2-5
- Stallions           -16   -2000     7-0 SU // 5-2 ATS // O/U 3-4
- Total: 43 (OV -115, UN -115)
Birmingham continues to be the class of the UFL conference (as evidenced by this being the largest spread we’ve seen in the league all year by far). I’ve been telling you guys for weeks that the plus-money prices on this team to win the league would be going away. The Stallions are now a -145 odds-on favorite to take home a third-straight spring football title. They’re also fresh off a win (they fell a point short of covering) against the Battlehawks in what was potentially a Championship Game preview, despite playing one of their worst games of the season.
Houston meanwhile is in a very different position. They’re already eliminated from the playoffs at 1-6 following a crushing loss to San Antonio last week. They somehow managed to lose despite having a nine point lead with less than three minutes to go at home and being +3 in turnover differential, with QB Jarrett Guarantano back from injury.
Where does that leave us on a 16-point spread with the best team in the league against, in my opinion, the worst? Well, these two last met in Week 5 in Houston, with the Stallions winning 32-9. They also held Houston scoreless in the second half and allowed just 36 total yards rushing for the entire game.
Because of Birmingham’s subpar (for their standards) performance last week, I see them putting extra emphasis on getting sharp these last few weeks ahead of the postseason. They also need to keep winning to secure home-field for their UFL semifinal, and against a team that’s shown little improvement this season, they should win at the margin.
That said, this game will be a pass for me. I can’t stomach laying such a big number, but I don’t have enough faith in Houston to go the other way.
If I were to place a bet I’d look to Stallions QB Adrian Martinez’s rushing yards, set at 40.5. He’s the lead rusher in the UFL and has gone over this number in five games this season, including a 138-yard burst three weeks ago vs. this very same Roughnecks team.
UFL Best Bet: PASS or Adrian Martinez OVER 40.5 rush yds
DC Defenders vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Sunday, 12 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+
- Defenders        +7.5    +300    3-4 SU // 3-4 ATS // O/U 3-4
- Battlehawks       -7.5    -450     5-2 SU // 5-2 ATS // O/U 5-2
- Total: 44.5 (OV -115, UN -115)
A St. Louis win would clinch their spot in the XFL Conference Championship. Should that happen, as the odds indicate, DC will be waiting with bated breath for the night game, in which a Brahmas win over the 1-6 Renegades would eliminate the Defenders from playoff contention.
When these two met in DC WK5, it got ugly for the home team Defenders late. Despite rallying from an early 17-0 deficit to bring it within 5 before the half, STL exercised some “DC swept us last year” demons in the second half, scoring 28 unanswered points to win 45-12. They nearly hit the pre-game total themselves. Worth noting the Battlehawks have hit the Over in five of their last six games.
Also, after starting the season 0-2 ATS, the Battlehawks have covered the spread in five straight.
That said, how do we evaluate the Battlehawks without QB AJ McCarron this week, who was on a trajectory to contend for league MVP? The former Alabama National Championship-winning quarterback injured his ankle in the team’s narrow loss to Birmingham and is on the inactive list, along with WRs Marcell Ateman and Jahcour Pearson.
Much will be asked of backup Manny Wilkins (or potentially Brandon Silvers), but the former ASU QB does bring a dual-threat ability that will present DC’s defense with a new look. He should also have the full playbook at his disposal, spending all of last season as the Battlehawks QB3, and will still have the team’s top wideout, Hakeem Butler, at his disposal.
RB Jaycob Saylors is also coming off a three-TD performance in last week’s loss (2 rushing, 1 receiving), but will need to provide more run support than his 38 yards, and should against the league’s worst run defense.
I also still expect the St. Louis defense to come to play. Birmingham makes everyone’s D look bad, but in the three games prior, the Battlehawks defense allowed an average of just 12.3 PPG.Â
Defenders QB Jordan Ta’amu has also been limited at practice this week, coming out of the concussion protocol from a hit in last week’s game. Head coach Reggie Barlow has expressed he expects Ta’Amu to be good to go, but Ta’Amu has struggled lately regardless and was particularly frustrated by the Battlehawks defense last time around, throwing for 101 yards, one TD, and three INTs. He’ll also be without a key weapon in WR Kelvin Harmon, who’s done for the season with injury.
DC’s defense is brutal against the run and in the bottom three in the league, allowing 24.6 PPG. I expect them to take another loss in the Battledome.
UFL Best Bet: WAIT
I like St. Louis, but wait until closer game time Sunday to see if you can get a better number. I think when the public realizes McCarron is unavailable, this could get driven down a little bit.
Arlington Renegades vs. San Antonio Brahmas
Sunday, 4 p.m. ET on FOX
- Renegades       +3.5    +150     1-6 SU // 3-4 ATS // O/U 4-3
- Brahmas           -3.5    -190      5-2 SU // 3-3-1 ATS // O/U 1-6
- Total: 46 (OV -115, UN -115)
Call me crazy. Call me a glutton for punishment, but I’m backing the Renegades again this week. Give me that +3.5, baby! I contemplated a sprinkle on the ML, but with a playoff spot potentially at stake, I’m taking that into account for my handicap and playing it safe.
Arlington is fresh off their first win of the season, and I think they will roll some of that momentum into Sunday. While you might think it would lack motivation, having already been eliminated from the playoffs, these guys are playing to prove their worth in making an NFL camp and for pride. There’s plenty of incentive to deliver.
I know they allow a lot of yards per game and 22.7 PPG defensively, but they flexed their muscles last week against Memphis with four total takeaways (two INTs and two forced fumbles). They are also tied for first with seven INTs this season.
Offensively, they’re one of the best teams in the league: second in passing yards, second in total yards per game, second in first downs, third in scoring, and third in tine of possession.
Four of their six losses were one-score games. They lost three of those four on walk-off field goals and saw a double-digit lead with less than two minutes to go against DC squandered (in addition to a number of just overall bad breaks).
They’ve also been more productive from a betting standpoint on the road than at home, covering in two of three road contests.
In steps San Antonio, who I’m still convinced is a paper tiger. Three of their five wins probably should be losses, including two narrow last-play comeback wins against the two worst teams in the league in Memphis and Houston. Last week, Houston lost the game a whole lot more than San Antonio won it.
The Brahmas did beat Arlington at home a few weeks back, 25-15, but the Renegades moved the ball well (Luis Perez 26-for-36, 270 yards, one TD) and defensively had three takeaways. Turn one or two of those drives into points, and we’ve got a very different ball game.
Additionally, I’ll also likely end up on the under. Even if Arlington finds the endzone more than their last time out, Wade Phillips’ defense is one of the stronger units in the league. The Brahmas have seen just one of their games this season go over the posted total.
UFL Best Bet: Arlington Renegades +3.5
LEAN: Under 46
