NHL Playoffs First Round Best Bets from Mike Somich:
The NHL Playoffs have arrived. They are easily my favorite playoffs of the four sports. Simply nothing matches the intensity of playoff hockey with teams fighting for every inch. Sudden death overtime provides instant drama where a single bounce can change the course of history.
It’s also my favorite playoffs to bet. Each year, there are poorly priced series that have bias baked into the number for a variety of reasons. This year’s first round is no different. Here are my favorite bets I have in the account.
Las Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 Games +110 vs. Minnesota Wild
This is a dream matchup for the deeper, more experienced Knights who enter the playoffs without the same injury concerns they had last year. Their offensive depth is vaunting with eight players scoring at least 15 goals and five over 20. They can effectively roll four lines which are all a threat to score. Defensively, they are deep and experienced with multiple Cup winners manning the blue line.
Minnesota, on the other hand, lacks depth offensively. They can roll a top line that is dangerous, but there is a steep drop-off each time the next line comes in. Their best defender, Brock Faber, is just 22 and in his first playoffs.
Both Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek, their two best players, returned from injury four games ago. For the Wild to be competitive in this series, they need to be superstars and get some help from down the lineup.
I’ve got this priced closer to VKG -1.5 -120, so let’s take a swing at the .30 of value.
Los Angeles Kings +115 vs. Edmonton Oilers
This simply is not the same Oilers team that made a run to the Cup Finals last year. They lost Halloway and Broberg to St Louis in the offseason, Mattias Ekholm is out for this series, Evander Kane is out for the year, and Leon Draisaitl has not played in weeks. The depth that led the Oilers to the Western Conference title last year simply does not exist. On top of that, there are still questions in net.
The Kings enter the series on a 17-4 run in their last 21 games while getting contributions up and down the lineup. They have the two-way center in Anze Kopitar needed to try to slow down McDavid, and they have been a force on home ice, running up a 31-5-4 record on the season.
The motivation is on the Kings’ side as well. The Oilers have knocked the Kings out of the playoffs the last three seasons. It’s time for a little revenge. Go Kings Go!
Tampa Bay Lightning -105 vs. Florida Panthers
This is going to be a banger of a series between my top two teams in the East. Florida enters this season’s playoff run in a very different position than last year. Mainly, they are fighting through injuries. Matthew Tkachuk has not played since the Four Nations, but is expected to skate before Game 1. I’m skeptical that he will be ready right out of the gate and be able to immediately make an impact. While no one else is listed as out, they have a handful of players who ended the season with Day-to-Day status, which is a concern.
The Lightning enter the series as the Eastern Conference leader in both Goals For and Goals Against. They are a deep, healthy team with a Cup-winning goaltender backing them up and have played well leading up to the postseason.
The Panthers are 3-7 in their last 10 and have been assessed the most penalty minutes in the NHL this season. That could be a major issue versus the #2-ranked power play.
I would have this priced at Lightning -105 if the Panthers were healthy and playing well, but they are not. The wrong team is favored here. Let’s strike with the Lightning.
