Today we have a loaded Week 14 College Football slate on tap with roughly 50 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
3:30 p.m. ET: Wisconsin (-2.5, 38.5) at Minnesota
Wisconsin (4-7) has won two of their last three and upset Illinois 27-10, winning outright as 9-point home dogs. On the other hand, Minnesota (6-5) has dropped three of their last four and just came up short against Northwestern 38-35 but managed to cover as 4-point road dogs.
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Wisconsin, flipping the Badgers from a 2.5-point road dog to a 2.5-point road favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Badgers.
At Circa, Wisconsin is receiving 41% of spread bets but a whopping 98% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of pros out in Vegas backing the road team.
Many pros looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game have elected to play the Badgers on the moneyline at -135.
At DraftKings, Wisconsin is taking in 48% of moneyline bets and 71% of moneyline dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of a Badgers straight up victory.
3:30 p.m. ET: Oregon (-7, 51.5) at Washington
Oregon (10-1, ranked 6th) has won five straight and just brushed aside USC 27-15, covering as 10.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Washington (8-3) has won two in a row just crushed UCLA 48-14, covering as 10.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Oregon listed as a 7-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the high powered Ducks, who have the better record and ranking.
However, despite receiving 80% of spread bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen the Ducks remain relatively stagnant at -7. In fact, a few outlier books are even showing Ducks -6.5 on gameday.
Normally, if a team is receiving such lopsided support you would expect to see them rise up from -7 to -7.5 or -8. The fact that the line hasn’t moved signals a sharp line freeze on Washington plus the points, with books reluctant to hand out a better price to contrarian Huskies bettors.
At DraftKings, Washington is receiving 20% of spread bets but 48% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in their favor.
The Huskies have additional buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent.
7:30 p.m. ET: Alabama (-5.5, 46.5) at Auburn
Alabama (9-2, ranked 10th) just destroyed Eastern Illinois 56-0, covering as 50.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Auburn (5-6) just beat up on Mercer 62-17, covering as 26.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Alabama listed as a 5.5-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so low and they’re hammering the Crimson Tide minus the points.
However, despite receiving 81% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Alabama remain steady at -5.5. Some books have even dipped down to -4.5 briefly at times throughout the week. This indicates a sharp line freeze in favor of Auburn plus the points, as the line has either stayed the same or shown liability in their favor even though the public is pounding the Crimson Tide.
Auburn is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Tigers are only taking in 19% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet primetime game on ABC.
Auburn has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent.
The Tigers have additional betting system value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
