With the MLB All-Star Break in full swing, data-driven bettors looking for some action might want to consider entering the WNBA arena for the next few days. With two WNBA games on tap for tonight, let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our WNBA Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8 p.m. ET: Minnesota Lynx (-10.5, 161) at Chicago Sky
The Lynx (18-4) have dropped two of their last three games while the Sky (7-13) have won two in a row. These teams are playing their second consecutive game against each other, with the Sky beating the Lynx 87-81 two days ago, winning outright as 11.5-point home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Lynx opened as a 10.5-point road favorite. We’ve seen the Lynx remain largely static at -10.5, with some shops briefly rising up to Lynx -11 and then falling back down to -10.5. Several shops are currently juicing up the Lynx -10.5 (-115), indicating some liability on the road favorite.
At DraftKings, the Lynx are only taking in 37% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars. At Circa, Minnesota is receiving 67% of spread bets and a whopping 96% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the road chalk covering the big number.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen some slight under action hit the market, dropping several books down from 161.5 to 161.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 34% of bets and 52% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
10 p.m. ET: Phoenix Mercury at Golden State Valkyries (-2.5, 158.5)
The Mercury (14-6) have won two straight and just took down the Lynx 79-71, winning outright as 7-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Valkyries (10-10) have dropped three of their last four games and just fell to the Aces 104-102 but managed to cover as 5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Golden State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is the team with the worse won-loss record who has lost three of their last four favored over the team with the better record who has won two straight?
Sharps have embraced the fishy side, steaming Golden State up from -1.5 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, the Valkyries are taking in 58% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars. At Circa, the Valkyries are receiving 57% of spread bets and a whopping 81% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers out in the desert backing the home team.
For those looking to follow the sharp move but also protect themselves in the event of a close game, the Valkyries are -140 on the moneyline. At DraftKings, the Valkyries are taking in 50% of moneyline bets but 64% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a straight up home win.
Home favorites with a line move in their favor, like Golden State here, are 41-10 (80%) with a 6% ROI straight up this season. Favorites straight up off a loss with a line move in their favor are 30-7 (81%) with a 13% ROI this season and 75-21 (78%) with a 12% ROI since the start of last season.
Golden State is 7-3 at home this season. This is also a revenge spot for the Valkyries, who fell to the Mercury 86-77 on the road in their first matchup back on June 5th.
