WNBA Best Bets:
It was a weird, low-scoring one-game slate on Thursday, but we are back with a full, four-game slate Friday night and a handful of games this weekend in the WNBA. We didn’t have any action on the Thursday night snoozer between the Liberty and Wings. There’s plenty of action on Friday, and TSI has projections for them all and a few bets as well.
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Here are Friday’s projections and a look-ahead of weekend slate projections:
Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury
The Dream stunned the Mercury by double digits at home earlier this week, and they’ll rematch Friday night in Atlanta, where Phoenix is a 3-point favorite with an Over/Under of 163. TSI projects Atlanta -1.5 with a total of 162. Despite the value on Atlanta, the line has moved toward Phoenix, so I’m in no hurry to pull the trigger on the Dream until we see the market hit its peak. The most favorable Mercury projection my various formulas could come up with is Mercury -1, so I’m going to be on the Dream at some point. It’s just a matter of finding the best number.
WNBA Best Bet: Atlanta Dream +3 (Play to +1.5)
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky
This is an intriguing frontcourt matchup of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones vs. Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso. The Sun are favored by 10 after this line has bounced around between 8 and 10.5, with an Over/Under of 155.5. TSI projects Sun -9 with a total of 154. These teams have played twice, with the Sun winning by just 8 and 4 points. I think Chicago plus double digits is the play here.
WNBA Best Bet: Chicago +10 or better
Washington Mystics vs. LA Sparks
What a gross matchup of bottom-dwelling teams who have battled many injuries all season. We’ve seen the Mystics take some serious action and drive the line from 3 to 6 in some spots, with a market consensus around -5.5, while the total has slightly dipped from 161.5 to 161. TSI has Washington -4.5 with a total of 163. These teams have played twice, with each team winning a game by two points. I would lean Sparks plus the points, but I wouldn’t make it official unless we get to 6.5 or better.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away at current numbers – Look for Sparks +6.5 or better
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces
Another rematch from earlier in the week, this one particularly stung us as we had best bets on the Aces and the Under. Both got ripped to shreds by an NBA Jam-esque, “she’s on fire” shooting performance from the Lynx. I had guys from ShotQuality bets in my DMs showing me their data of how ridiculous it was that the Lynx compiled so many points based on the shots they took. Nonetheless, we took a couple of Ls on that game. We will look to rebound tonight. The Lynx opened as a short favorite, but the Aces have been bet up to -1.5 with a total of 167. TSI projects Lynx -1.5 with a total of 161.5. I think the Under is definitely the look here. It’s unlikely the shooting display will continue from the other night, and the Lynx will have Caitlin Clark and the Fever on deck this weekend.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 167 (Play to 166.5)
Weekend Look-Ahead Projections:
NY Liberty -6 vs Connecticut Sun (151)
Minnesota Lynx -6.5 vs Indiana Fever (167)
Chicago Sky +5 vs Las Vegas Aces (167)
Dallas Wings -1 vs Los Angeles Sparks (172)
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