Sitting at 67% on all bets this week (8-4), it’s been a strong showing from the TSI and as I pointed out on X, TSI has been pretty handily beating the closing line in terms of average error for the last week or so. It’s a small sample size but it comes after making a tweak to the model (which I often do) so it’s encouraging to see the results turning out so well afterwards.
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Here are today’s projections from my T Shoe Index:
New York Liberty vs Washington Mystics
New York is currently a 15-point home favorite with an Over/Under of 160, while TSI projects similarly with the Liberty projected as a 14-point favorite and the total of 160. This is clearly a no-action game for me pregame since the lines are so tight, but would perhaps look to bet a live Under early in the game if the total exceeds 175 (see my X account for trends on this). The in-season formula says Liberty -12 with a total of 157, so there’s still not enough for me to make a play on this game.
Advice: Stay away
Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces
The defending champion Aces visit the A to take on the Dream as 8.5-point road favorites with an Over/Under of 172. TSI is again pretty much in lockstep here, projecting Vegas as 8.5-point favorites with a total of 171. Again, not much of an edge here so it would be a live play or nothing for me. Looking at just the 2024 data would make this line Aces -6 with a total of 170.5, which still isn’t enough for me to make a play here.
Advice: Stay away
Connecticut Sun vs Dallas Wings
Dallas has been all over the place this season, but TSI still has a strong rating for them despite the inconsistency early. Connecticut, on the other hand, is undefeated and looks the part of a true contender. The Sun are 8.5-point home favorites with an Over/Under of 164. TSI and the market have disagreed on Dallas pretty much every game, and this is no different; TSI projects Connecticut as 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 167.5. The in-season data only would align, indicating Connecticut should be a 5.5-point favorite (total of 162). I’ll take my chances with Arike Ogunbowale here.
Bet: Wings +8.5 (Play to +7)
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
The Lynx have climbed into the TSI top 5 but are coming off a humbling loss to the champs, but they are currently 7-point favorites with an Over/Under of 165 against the Mercury (who we’re holding a promising win total under bet on). TSI projects Minnesota -6.5 with a total of 159.5, indicating some value on the under, and the in-season numbers align with a 157-point projection.
Bet: Under 165 (Play to 163.5)
Weekend Projections Quick Hit:
Saturday
Indiana Fever vs Chicago Sky (-5.5) (169)
Sunday
Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun (-4) (159)
Phoenix Mercury (-3) vs Los Angeles Sparks (159.5)
New York Liberty (-16) vs Indiana Fever (170.5)
Minnesota Lynx (-1.5) vs Dallas Wings (168)
For all of my prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get the real time updates from me on all things WNBA.
