WNBA Best Bets:
This is a sad week for WNBA bettors, as we only get Tuesday and Wednesday games before the league goes on a month-long break to accommodate the Olympics schedule. We’ve had an incredibly hot hand lately, so I’m hoping to head into the break continuing the momentum.
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We’ve got a full, four-game slate on Tuesday and two games on Wednesday to hold us over until August, so let’s get to the projections.
Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury
This line has been bouncing back and forth, anywhere from Mercury -3 to Mercury -5.5. Phoenix has been playing pretty poorly heading into the break and are probably among the teams who most need a month off to get healthy and rest. The Over/Under for this matchup is 168.5. TSI projects Phoenix -0.5 with a total of 167.5, and looking at how these teams have played over their last handful of games, I would actually favor the Mystics here.
WNBA Best Bet: Mystics +5.5 (Play to +4)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm
Speaking of trends, the Storm are trending way up over the last handful of games and only Caitlin Clark’s Fever team has a higher trendline heading into the break from where they were early in the season. Seattle is an 8.5-point favorite against LA with an Over/Under of 162, while TSI projects Seattle -5.5 with a total of 158.5. Given the trendline for Seattle, I don’t want to bet against them here, but I would like the under; however, we’ve seen this line ticking up over the last 24 hours, so be patient and get the best number.
WNBA Best Bet: Under 162.5 or better
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut SunÂ
Connecticut reached a point where I was about to give up on them, but they’ve responded nicely and are playing very well heading into the Olympic break after throttling the Phoenix Mercury over the weekend. New York is more limping into the break, with some sluggish performances and injuries to starters. NY is still favored by 4 in this game with an over/under of 153.5 and TSI projects Liberty -4 with a total of 148.5. The tricky aspect of this game is who is going to play for the Liberty. Given that we don’t know that Breanna Stewart, for instance, is going to play after dealing with a hamstring injury makes this a tough one to call, but I went ahead and grabbed the points with Connecticut because if Stewart doesn’t play, this will be closer to a pick ’em.
WNBA Best Bet: Sun +4
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky
Angel Reese vs A’ja Wilson should be a lot of fun to watch. I think in a lot of ways, A’ja is what the ideal, finished version of Angel could hope to be. The Aces are 13-point favorites with an Over/Under of 171, and TSI projects Aces -13 with a total of 166. The Aces have been cashing some Unders for us, and I think this line is too high for a team that’s gotten their defense together a little over the last few games.Â
WNBA Best Bet: Under 171 (Play to 170)
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