WNBA Best Bets:

Let’s look at tonight’s WNBA best bets:

New York Liberty (-2.5; 159.5) at Minnesota Lynx

One of the most exciting phrases in all of sports: elimination game. The Liberty can clinch their first franchise title with a road win in Minnesota tonight after a dagger 3 by Sabrina Ionescu on Wednesday night to take control of the series, or Minnesota can tie the series and send it back to New York for a fifth and final game. Aside from the Game 2 blowout on Sunday, these teams have been neck-and-neck with each other in all previous matchups, punctuated by the Game 1 OT comeback win by the Lynx. Minnesota has covered in three of the previous four matchups between these teams, all as an underdog. 

 

Tonight, the Liberty are again 2.5 point favorites with an Over/Under of 159.5, and TSI is in lockstep, projecting Liberty -2.5 with a total of 161. The first three games of this series had an Over/Under of 160.5, 162.5, and 160.5, so tonight’s (barely) below 160 O/U is interesting, as perhaps fatigue is starting to become a factor. Between my TSI projection and the decent chance of overtime between two closely matched teams, I wouldn’t want to play an Under in the 150s. I’d lean Lynx +2.5 and Over 159.5, but there’s not enough value for me to, in good conscience, give an official play.

WNBA Best Bet: Leans Lynx +2.5, Over 159.5

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