WNBA Best Bets:
We are scalding hot right now across multiple sports, but particularly in the WNBA, where we’re now 14-6 in our last 20 WNBA best bets after going 4-0 yesterday. Tonight, we have three games on the docket, but unfortunately, there’s not much that’s actionable, according to my T Shoe Index. Nonetheless, I will give you my projections and leans for tonight, as I don’t want to force anything that’s not there. After all, bankroll management is how you stay afloat during the inevitable cold streaks that come with betting year ‘round.
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Here are tonight’s projections:
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
After missing the last game and reportedly being in a walking boot, Aces star and presumptive league MVP, A’ja Wilson, is not on the injury report for tonight in a marquee matchup with rookie sensation Caitlin Clark and the Fever. Clark leads the W in assists and is within striking distance of several WNBA season records. The Aces are 3.5-point road favorites with an Over/Under of 178. TSI projects Aces -1 with a total of 177. Although TSI indicates some value on the Fever and the Under, additional formulas I reference to guide me on/off of bets are showing some mixed data, with projections as high as Aces -7 and 178.5 on the total, so I’m going to pass as I like to see those formulas align before making a bet. These teams have played twice, but not since July 2nd (when I was in attendance with good friend and VSiN Managing Editor, Adam Burke), and the Aces have won both by 19 points per game with an average combined score of 169.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Under 178
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics
Angel Reese is out for the season for the Sky, who haven’t had both Reese and Chennedy Carter in the lineup together in what feels like ages. That’s unfortunate for a young, scrappy team battling for the eighth and final playoff spot this season. Tonight, they will take on the Washington Mystics as 1-point favorites with an Over/Under of 160.5, as this line has been hammered down 3 points in favor of Washington. TSI projects Chicago -1 with a total of 160, so right in lockstep with the market. These teams have played three times this season, with Washington taking two of the three with an average score of 77-76 in favor of Chicago. I would’ve like Washington at +2.5 or better, but as it stands I’m going to sit this one out unless we see further line movement that potentially creates value on Chicago.
WNBA Best Bet: Stay away
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm
Los Angeles is on the second night of a back-to-back after getting thrashed by Connecticut last night. Seattle is coming off a 24-point blowout of Phoenix over the weekend. Both of these teams have been awful ATS lately, combining to go just 8-12 in their combined last 20 games, so something’s got to give tonight. The Storm are 10.5 point favorites and seemingly climbing, as the market is fading the playoff-hopeless Sparks on their back-to-back, and the Over/Under is set at 163.5. TSI projects Seattle -9.5 with a total of 164, not accounting for the back-to-back factor, so this market seems right to me at current numbers. These teams have played three times this season with an average score of 88-82 in favor of Seattle. These have been big Under teams this season overall, and with the tired legs (and general attitude of wanting the season to be over already) of Los Angeles, I’d lean under here.
WNBA Best Bet: Lean Under 163.5
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